Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+496↑37%|-294

player points alternate

Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+496↑37%|-294

player points alternate

28.30

Composite Score

-4.2%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

0.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the expectation of a tightly contested game with both teams vying for a win, Devin Vassell's chances to reach 19.5 points appear limited. The strong defensive capabilities of the Pistons will likely pressure Vassell, restricting his scoring opportunities while past trends indicate he hasn't surpassed this threshold consistently. The Net EV of -0.04 suggests this bet is overpriced, aligning with the analysis indicating a tough matchup for Vassell, making this wager unwise.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Devin Vassell has been averaging 15.8 points over the last 5 games, which, although below the threshold, suggests he has been a consistent scorer and may have the potential to surpass 19.5 points given a favorable matchup.
→MATCHUP: The game total of 232.5 indicates a high-scoring environment, which benefits Vassell's chances of exceeding the 19.5 points mark, as both teams' offensive capabilities are strong.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, leading to heavier minutes for Vassell and greater shot opportunities to score.
→TREND: Vassell has shown improvement in recent games, particularly with his FG attempts at 11.6 per game; if he maintains or increases this activity, he can reach higher scoring outputs.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, suggesting a high level of confidence and intensity, which may inspire Vassell to step up his scoring in such crucial games against high-performing opponents like the Pistons.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: URL1, URL2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Devin Vassell's points per game is currently at 15.8, which is significantly below the required threshold of 19.5. Historical data indicates he has rarely crossed this number, showcasing that he struggles to reach higher scoring totals consistently.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defensive lineup currently ranked among the top teams in the league. This makes it difficult for opposing players like Vassell to find open looks, limiting his scoring opportunities and making it less likely that he exceeds 19.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of 1.5 points, the game is expected to be tightly contested. In such scenarios, the role players may see limited scoring opportunities compared to the team's primary scorers, making it harder for Vassell to hit the over on his points.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Vassell has not hit the 19.5 points mark, averaging only 15.8 points per game. This trend suggests a consistent underperformance relative to the proposed threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak, suggesting team cohesion and distribution of scoring amongst players. With the success of the team, it's likely that Vassell's scoring will continue to be shared rather than focused solely on him, which could keep his points below 19.5.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Devin Vassell has been averaging 15.8 points over the last 5 games, which, although below the threshold, suggests he has been a consistent scorer and may have the potential to surpass 19.5 points given a favorable matchup.
→MATCHUP: The game total of 232.5 indicates a high-scoring environment, which benefits Vassell's chances of exceeding the 19.5 points mark, as both teams' offensive capabilities are strong.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, leading to heavier minutes for Vassell and greater shot opportunities to score.
→TREND: Vassell has shown improvement in recent games, particularly with his FG attempts at 11.6 per game; if he maintains or increases this activity, he can reach higher scoring outputs.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, suggesting a high level of confidence and intensity, which may inspire Vassell to step up his scoring in such crucial games against high-performing opponents like the Pistons.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: URL1, URL2

+300+40.6% EV

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1100+37.5% EV

Devin Vassell Over 4.5 assists alternate💤

+1340+36.4% EV

Devin Vassell Over 5.5 rebounds alternate💤

+680+35.7% EV

Devin Vassell Over 6.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1320+33.0% EV