Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama double double

🎯 Core Value Bet

+130— stable

player double double

Victor Wembanyama double double

🎯 Core Value Bet

+130— stable

player double double

35.00

Composite Score

+5.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

26.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The game is expected to be high-scoring based on the total of 232.5, creating ample opportunities for Wembanyama to contribute effectively in terms of both points and rebounds. While his assist average is low, his rebounding numbers against the Pistons show strong potential for him to reach a double-double. The slight positive Net EV suggests that while there are challenges, the likelihood of Wembanyama achieving this feat aligns well with the expected competitive nature of the matchup, where both teams will play their stars significant minutes.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama is averaging 11.0 rebounds per game with a recent average of 10.4 rebounds, indicating a strong capability to meet the rebounding part of the double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently allowing an average of 111.5 points per game to their opponents, which could provide ample scoring opportunities for Wembanyama.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high game total of 232.5, this matchup is expected to be high-scoring, generating more opportunities for Wembanyama to accumulate both points and rebounds.
→TREND: In his last five games, Wembanyama has consistently been near the double-double threshold, notably recording 13 rebounds in two separate outings against the Spurs, demonstrating his ability to contribute heavily in multiple categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup between the Spurs and Pistons is close, indicated by a small spread of 1.5 points, which means both teams will likely compete hard with their stars playing significant minutes, favoring Wembanyama's chances to achieve double-digits in both scoring and rebounding.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Wembanyama's recent assist average is only 2.0 dimes per game, well below the necessary threshold to facilitate a double-double if he is to rely heavily on assists.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are a formidable defensive unit, which may limit Wembanyama's scoring and rebounding opportunities since they rank within the top 5 in defensive efficiency this season.
→NARRATIVE: Given the small spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5) indicating a tightly contested game, there is a chance that Wembanyama may not play heavy minutes if the game remains competitive, increasing the difficulty of achieving a double-double.
→TREND: Across the last 5 games, Wembanyama has only reached double-digit assists in 1 game, which significantly lowers the likelihood of him achieving a double-double in terms of scoring and assisting.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs have been on a strong 8-game winning streak, and in such scenarios, star players may have their minutes managed, especially if the game is within reach for the Spurs, which could hinder Wembanyama’s chances of exceeding the double-double threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama is averaging 11.0 rebounds per game with a recent average of 10.4 rebounds, indicating a strong capability to meet the rebounding part of the double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently allowing an average of 111.5 points per game to their opponents, which could provide ample scoring opportunities for Wembanyama.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high game total of 232.5, this matchup is expected to be high-scoring, generating more opportunities for Wembanyama to accumulate both points and rebounds.
→TREND: In his last five games, Wembanyama has consistently been near the double-double threshold, notably recording 13 rebounds in two separate outings against the Spurs, demonstrating his ability to contribute heavily in multiple categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup between the Spurs and Pistons is close, indicated by a small spread of 1.5 points, which means both teams will likely compete hard with their stars playing significant minutes, favoring Wembanyama's chances to achieve double-digits in both scoring and rebounding.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

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