Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson double double

💤 Noise Bet

+1100↓10%|+100

player double double

Ausar Thompson double double

💤 Noise Bet

+1100↓10%|+100

player double double

46.00

Composite Score

+6.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

32.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The matchup between the Spurs and Pistons is projected to be high-scoring, which typically supports the likelihood of individual players, like Ausar Thompson, achieving big stats. However, the opposing evidence is compelling; Thompson's low assist averages and the Spurs' strong defensive performance against assists specifically suggest a strong chance of underperformance. The Net EV of 0.07 indicates slight value, but given the significant opposing factors, it's prudent to pass on this bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 6.0 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game over his last 5 games, which indicates he is close to reaching a double-double when combining those with his points, averaging 11.8 points.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs concede an average of 117.8 points per game, suggesting that there will be ample opportunities for Thompson to score and accumulate rebounds and assists against a high-scoring opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 232.5, this matchup indicates a high-scoring affair which can facilitate higher stats across all categories, boosting the likelihood of Thompson achieving a double-double.
→TREND: Thompson's recent performance shows an upward trend in his scoring, rebounding, and assisting, with notable performances like his 12 rebounds against the Portland Trail Blazers, indicating he has the potential to exceed double digits in both categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 5-game winning streak, boosting team momentum which typically leads to increased player performance, particularly for key contributors like Thompson.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's recent averages include only 1.6 assists per game and he has not reached double digits in assists in any of his last five games, indicating he is unlikely to achieve a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently one of the top teams with a strong defense, ranking high in limiting points and assists, which will hinder Thompson's ability to score and facilitate effectively.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this is a close match with a small spread, the game is likely to be competitive, which could mean more minutes for the starters but also increases the intensity on the defensive end, limiting potential double-double opportunities for Thompson.
→TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has only averaged 5.1 rebounds and his performance has not shown any indication of consistent contribution in both points and assists, suggesting he is trending towards underperforming.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a five-game winning streak and playing at home, they may be motivated to maintain momentum, and a tight contest could see Thompson's minutes limited if the game strategy leans towards defending against the Spurs' strong offensive players.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 6.0 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game over his last 5 games, which indicates he is close to reaching a double-double when combining those with his points, averaging 11.8 points.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs concede an average of 117.8 points per game, suggesting that there will be ample opportunities for Thompson to score and accumulate rebounds and assists against a high-scoring opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 232.5, this matchup indicates a high-scoring affair which can facilitate higher stats across all categories, boosting the likelihood of Thompson achieving a double-double.
→TREND: Thompson's recent performance shows an upward trend in his scoring, rebounding, and assisting, with notable performances like his 12 rebounds against the Portland Trail Blazers, indicating he has the potential to exceed double digits in both categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 5-game winning streak, boosting team momentum which typically leads to increased player performance, particularly for key contributors like Thompson.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

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