Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris double double

💤 Noise Bet

+1100↑8%|-100

player double double

Tobias Harris double double

💤 Noise Bet

+1100↑8%|-100

player double double

43.70

Composite Score

+5.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

29.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In the expected competitive matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, Tobias Harris's playing time will likely increase, resulting in more opportunities for rebounds and assists. The favorable matchup against the Spurs, who allow significant rebounds, combined with Harris' capability to accumulate stats, leads to a reasonable expectation for him to achieve a double-double at +1100 odds. The Net EV of 0.06 supports this bet as it indicates a slight underpricing by the bookmaker, despite some concerns about his average output.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 5.9 rebounds per game this season, which aligns closely with the double-double threshold for rebounds along with his 13.7 points per game.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently facing off against the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a significant amount of rebounds and assists which increases the likelihood of Harris achieving a double-double.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams competing for playoff positioning and having strong offensive outputs (total set at 232.5), the game script indicates a competitive matchup that would keep starters like Harris on the floor longer, providing ample opportunity for a double-double.
→TREND: Harris had a recent performance where he achieved 7 rebounds in a game against the Spurs, showing his capability to hit the rebound mark necessary for a double-double.
→SITUATIONAL: Harris is currently seeing over 31 minutes of playtime per game this season, which will likely increase in a close game against the Spurs, enhancing his chances to accumulate the necessary stats for a double-double.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 92%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged only 5.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game this season, making it highly unlikely that he will achieve a double-double (10+ in any two categories) given his current levels of output.
→MATCHUP: Facing the San Antonio Spurs, who have been strong defensively with no reported injuries, it will be challenging for Harris to utilize his scoring and rebounding abilities effectively against their loaded lineup.
→NARRATIVE: With the Pistons likely aiming for a tight contest against the Spurs (spread of only -1.5), it's unlikely that Harris will have enough opportunities for both rebounds and assists as plays will be more focused on scoring rather than distributing or causing rebounds.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Harris has only recorded more than 10 combined rebounds and assists once, highlighting an inconsistency in achieving the necessary stats for a double-double.
→SITUATIONAL: The game is framed as high-stakes where both teams have been performing well, which often leads to tight usage distribution and less individual statistical growth, further hindering Harris's chances of a double-double.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 5.9 rebounds per game this season, which aligns closely with the double-double threshold for rebounds along with his 13.7 points per game.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently facing off against the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a significant amount of rebounds and assists which increases the likelihood of Harris achieving a double-double.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams competing for playoff positioning and having strong offensive outputs (total set at 232.5), the game script indicates a competitive matchup that would keep starters like Harris on the floor longer, providing ample opportunity for a double-double.
→TREND: Harris had a recent performance where he achieved 7 rebounds in a game against the Spurs, showing his capability to hit the rebound mark necessary for a double-double.
→SITUATIONAL: Harris is currently seeing over 31 minutes of playtime per game this season, which will likely increase in a close game against the Spurs, enhancing his chances to accumulate the necessary stats for a double-double.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

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