Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Over 19.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+414↓205%|+808

player points rebounds alternate

Dylan Harper Over 19.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+414↓205%|+808

player points rebounds alternate

62.10

Composite Score

+26.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a projected high-scoring game with a total of 232.5 and a competitive spread, Dylan Harper is likely to exceed the 19.5 combined points and rebounds mark. His recent upward trend in rebounding and the matchup against the Pistons, who are expected to push the pace, supports increased opportunities for Harper to accumulate stats. The Net EV of 0.26 indicates the bet is underpriced by the bookmaker, aligning well with the expected game dynamics.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper is averaging 10.8 points and 3.6 rebounds over his last 5 games, giving him a strong base for exceeding 9.5 combined points and rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank in the top tier of the league, which suggests a competitive atmosphere that would lead to more minutes played for Harper, further boosting his scoring and rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, both teams are expected to push the pace, leading to more possessions and chance for Harper to accumulate stats as the game unfolds.
→TREND: Harper's recent games show upward trends in rebounding, hitting a peak of 7 rebounds against the Spurs, indicating he can contribute significantly on the boards in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates potential for a competitive game, meaning heavy minutes for starters including Harper, enhancing the likelihood of exceeding the points and rebounds threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged just 3.6 rebounds per game and has a total of 10.8 points in the last 5 games, indicating he typically does not exceed 9.5 combined points and rebounds.
→MATCHUP: Harper is facing a strong defense from the San Antonio Spurs, who are currently ranked 1st in their division and have limited opponent scoring opportunities, which could stifle his ability to accumulate points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 232.5, while it suggests a high-scoring game, the breakdown of play and pace may result in a crowded paint and limit Harper's effectiveness, particularly against a well-coordinated Spurs defense.
→TREND: Over Harper's last five games, he has failed to reach the 9.5 combined points and rebounds in multiple instances, which indicates a trend of underperformance relative to this threshold, particularly in games where he received limited minutes.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup poses a significant challenge, as both teams are playoff contenders and have strong defenses; the high pressure of the game could lead to fewer minutes for Harper, especially if he struggles early on.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper is averaging 10.8 points and 3.6 rebounds over his last 5 games, giving him a strong base for exceeding 9.5 combined points and rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank in the top tier of the league, which suggests a competitive atmosphere that would lead to more minutes played for Harper, further boosting his scoring and rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, both teams are expected to push the pace, leading to more possessions and chance for Harper to accumulate stats as the game unfolds.
→TREND: Harper's recent games show upward trends in rebounding, hitting a peak of 7 rebounds against the Spurs, indicating he can contribute significantly on the boards in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates potential for a competitive game, meaning heavy minutes for starters including Harper, enhancing the likelihood of exceeding the points and rebounds threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+310+61.3% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points rebounds alternate🚀

+225+56.3% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 49.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1060+40.1% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1000+39.3% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

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