Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1000↓237%|+1730

player points rebounds alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1000↓237%|+1730

player points rebounds alternate

63.70

Composite Score

+39.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the anticipated fast pace in this matchup, Ausar Thompson's Over on points and rebounds is a strong play. The offensive environment, indicated by a high total of 232.5, combined with the Spurs' middle-tier defense, offers Thompson ample opportunities to surpass 24.5 combined points and rebounds. The Net EV of 0.39 reflects a significant edge suggesting the bookmaker's line may underestimate Thompson's potential output, particularly with expected high minutes in a competitive game.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points and 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, which totals 17.8 combined and significantly exceeds the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs rank in the middle tier for both points and rebounds allowed, which sets a favorable environment for Thompson to exceed his point and rebound totals.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected fast pace will lead to increased possessions, allowing Thompson more opportunities to score and rebound.
→TREND: Thompson's recent trend shows an increase in his minutes and overall performance, particularly against teams like the Pistons where he previously recorded 6 rebounds and a steady scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of Pistons -1.5 suggests a competitive matchup, which means starters like Thompson will play significant minutes, allowing him the court time to accumulate necessary stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's average points and rebounds per game are 10.1 and 5.1, respectively, combining to 15.2, but he's only exceeding 9.5 in those categories against weaker defenses than the Spurs.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top defenses in the league, which could limit Thompson's scoring and rebounding opportunities significantly compared to his previous matchups.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 in this game, both teams may focus on offense, leading to a potential lower rebound count for Thompson as his role shifts away from the boards to support scoring.
→TREND: In his last game against the Spurs, Thompson only recorded 6 rebounds, highlighting his struggle to meet higher performance benchmarks against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, which can lead to load management for some players as they might rest or limit minutes for key players close to the playoffs, potentially affecting Thompson's playing time.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points and 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, which totals 17.8 combined and significantly exceeds the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs rank in the middle tier for both points and rebounds allowed, which sets a favorable environment for Thompson to exceed his point and rebound totals.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected fast pace will lead to increased possessions, allowing Thompson more opportunities to score and rebound.
→TREND: Thompson's recent trend shows an increase in his minutes and overall performance, particularly against teams like the Pistons where he previously recorded 6 rebounds and a steady scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of Pistons -1.5 suggests a competitive matchup, which means starters like Thompson will play significant minutes, allowing him the court time to accumulate necessary stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

+310+61.3% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points rebounds alternate🚀

+225+56.3% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 49.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1060+40.1% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1020+39.2% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 44.5 points rebounds alternate🚀

+561+37.4% EV