Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Under 2.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+120— stable

player assists

Ausar Thompson Under 2.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+120— stable

player assists

32.00

Composite Score

+3.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

18.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Considering the expectation for this game, the close spread suggests a competitive matchup that may lead to limited assist opportunities for Ausar Thompson. Despite the potential for increased playing time, his recent trends and the strong perimeter defense by the Spurs make it challenging to see him exceeding 2.5 assists. The Net EV of 0.04 indicates only a slight edge, which does not provide enough confidence to actively pursue this bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson averages only 2.3 assists per game this season, and in his last five games, he has averaged just 1.6 assists, showing he is significantly below the threshold of 2.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank highly as a defensive team, which could further limit Thompson’s opportunities for assists, particularly against their strong perimeter defense.
→NARRATIVE: With the game spread being relatively close at Detroit Pistons -1.5, there is potential for the game to be competitive, which may lead to less passing and more scoring attempts from Thompson himself rather than creating assists.
→TREND: Recently, Thompson has shown a downward trend in assists, with only a few games hitting 2 or more assists out of his last five, making it unlikely he will exceed 2.5 assists in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: Thompson averages only 22.5 minutes per game, which presents a significant limitation on his ability to accumulate assists, especially if the game remains close and competitive.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 1.6 assists over the last 5 games, but in games where he plays significant minutes, his playmaking opportunities increase and can push him to exceed the 2.5 assists mark.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a high-scoring offense, and a fast-paced game is expected, which creates more opportunities for assists as Thompson will be involved in more possessions.
→NARRATIVE: With the game's total set at 232.5, a high-scoring affair suggests that both teams will push the pace, leading to more potential assist opportunities for Thompson.
→TREND: Although Thompson's recent assist average is lower, he has demonstrated the ability to find teammates well when given more minutes. As he is likely to play closer to 30 minutes in this matchup, this could elevate his assists.
→SITUATIONAL: This game features a close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, indicating that the game is expected to remain competitive. In tightly contested games, key players tend to see increased playing time and involvement, leading to higher assist totals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson averages only 2.3 assists per game this season, and in his last five games, he has averaged just 1.6 assists, showing he is significantly below the threshold of 2.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank highly as a defensive team, which could further limit Thompson’s opportunities for assists, particularly against their strong perimeter defense.
→NARRATIVE: With the game spread being relatively close at Detroit Pistons -1.5, there is potential for the game to be competitive, which may lead to less passing and more scoring attempts from Thompson himself rather than creating assists.
→TREND: Recently, Thompson has shown a downward trend in assists, with only a few games hitting 2 or more assists out of his last five, making it unlikely he will exceed 2.5 assists in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: Thompson averages only 22.5 minutes per game, which presents a significant limitation on his ability to accumulate assists, especially if the game remains close and competitive.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available, data not available

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