Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama Over 29.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+270↑65%|-505

player points alternate

Victor Wembanyama Over 29.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+270↑65%|-505

player points alternate

42.10

Composite Score

-7.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

39.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

While both agents present valid points, the strong negative EV of -0.08 indicates that the market likely has Victor Wembanyama's Over 29.5 points priced correctly. The Pistons' strong defensive capabilities and the likelihood of Wembanyama focusing more on facilitating could limit his scoring opportunities, further supporting the notion that he might not exceed the proposed threshold. Given these factors, this bet lacks sufficient justification within the expected game script, making it a pass.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has been averaging 24.8 points over the last 5 games, and with his increased usage and good shooting percentage, it's reasonable to expect him to push toward the 34.5 mark against a high-scoring team like Detroit.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs face off against the Pistons' defense, which has been vulnerable to strong offensive performances, suggesting that Wembanyama could exploit those matchups for higher scoring.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected pace and scoring volume will likely create opportunities for Wembanyama, especially in a close game context indicated by the small spread of 1.5.
→TREND: Wembanyama's scoring has been on an upward trajectory, recently recording 14 rebounds and contributing significantly with offensive plays, indicating he's in form to capitalize on scoring chances.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, which suggests a competitive game script. As the Spurs push for playoff positioning and motivation from their recent performance streak (W8), Wembanyama is likely to see an increased role in a closely fought game.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama's current average points per game is 24.3, and in his last five games, he has scored an average of only 24.8 points, which is significantly lower than the required 34.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defensive presence, which may limit Wembanyama's scoring opportunities. This matchup poses a challenge as the Pistons are the first in the Central Division, indicating a higher level of competition.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the game, if it remains close, it's likely that Wembanyama will focus more on facilitating rather than solely scoring, potentially leading to a lower point total than needed.
→TREND: Wembanyama has not exceeded 30 points in any of his recent games, indicating a trend of underperformance relative to this proposed threshold of 34.5 points.
→SITUATIONAL: The San Antonio Spurs are on an eight-game win streak, which may lead to benching their starters in a blowout scenario, especially if they build a comfortable lead against the Pistons, further reducing Wembanyama's time on the court.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has been averaging 24.8 points over the last 5 games, and with his increased usage and good shooting percentage, it's reasonable to expect him to push toward the 34.5 mark against a high-scoring team like Detroit.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs face off against the Pistons' defense, which has been vulnerable to strong offensive performances, suggesting that Wembanyama could exploit those matchups for higher scoring.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected pace and scoring volume will likely create opportunities for Wembanyama, especially in a close game context indicated by the small spread of 1.5.
→TREND: Wembanyama's scoring has been on an upward trajectory, recently recording 14 rebounds and contributing significantly with offensive plays, indicating he's in form to capitalize on scoring chances.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, which suggests a competitive game script. As the Spurs push for playoff positioning and motivation from their recent performance streak (W8), Wembanyama is likely to see an increased role in a closely fought game.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

+1340+69.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 16.5 rebounds alternate💤

+950+37.9% EV

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1100+37.5% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 5.5 blocks alternate💤

+860+33.1% EV