Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Under 8.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-115— stable

player points assists

Julian Champagnie Under 8.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-115— stable

player points assists

37.90

Composite Score

+6.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

33.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Julian Champagnie Under 8.5 points + assists does not align well with the expected game narrative. Despite the pro agent highlighting a strong defensive unit from the Spurs and a concerning trend in Champagnie's performance, the anti agent presents compelling evidence of his recent scoring output, the Spurs’ fast-paced offense, and a high projected game total of 232.5. The final Net EV of 0.07, while positive, indicates only a slight edge, suggesting the market hasn't mispriced this bet significantly enough to warrant action, especially given the more persuasive arguments against it.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging only 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, significantly lower than the 8.5 threshold, indicating that reaching this mark is highly improbable.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs possess a strong defensive unit, ranking among the top teams in the league in limiting assists. This matchup creates a challenging environment for Champagnie to generate enough assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game spread indicates a close matchup (Detroit Pistons -1.5), it is likely that both teams will play their starters more, leading to tighter defensive schemes that hinder individual assist opportunities.
→TREND: Champagnie has not hit more than 2 assists in any of his last five games, showcasing a concerning trend of underperformance that suggests he is unlikely to exceed the 8.5 assists mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The framework of both teams having a high win percentage and a competitive context suggests possible playoff scenarios. In such games, teams often tighten their rotations and rely more on established playmakers, which could limit Champagnie's assist opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points and 1.6 assists over the last five games, showcasing his ability to contribute significantly in scoring and playmaking, which supports hitting the over on 8.5 points+assists.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs, currently 1st in the Southwest Division, are known for their fast-paced offense, which correlates with an increase in opportunities for players like Champagnie to accumulate points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's projected total of 232.5, it suggests a high-scoring matchup, providing ample chances for Champagnie to contribute to both points and assists during a competitive game against the Pistons.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown a positive recent trend in performance, averaging 1.6 assists per game, which is an increase from his season average of 1.4 assists, indicating an upward trajectory in his playmaking.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of 1.5 suggests a competitive game where starters will receive ample playing time, likely resulting in Champagnie playing 30+ minutes, which boosts his chances to exceed 8.5 points and assists combined.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging only 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, significantly lower than the 8.5 threshold, indicating that reaching this mark is highly improbable.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs possess a strong defensive unit, ranking among the top teams in the league in limiting assists. This matchup creates a challenging environment for Champagnie to generate enough assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game spread indicates a close matchup (Detroit Pistons -1.5), it is likely that both teams will play their starters more, leading to tighter defensive schemes that hinder individual assist opportunities.
→TREND: Champagnie has not hit more than 2 assists in any of his last five games, showcasing a concerning trend of underperformance that suggests he is unlikely to exceed the 8.5 assists mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The framework of both teams having a high win percentage and a competitive context suggests possible playoff scenarios. In such games, teams often tighten their rotations and rely more on established playmakers, which could limit Champagnie's assist opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

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