Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Under 13.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-112— stable

player points assists

Dylan Harper Under 13.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-112— stable

player points assists

35.40

Composite Score

+5.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

27.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The final Net EV of 0.05 indicates that this bet is fairly valued by the market, suggesting no significant edge to pursue. Both agents present compelling arguments, but the pro agent’s emphasis on Harper's lack of recent offensive production and limited minutes clashes with the anti agent's observations about the game's expected fast pace and close competitiveness. Given the balanced narrative and insufficient edge, it's prudent to pass on this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper is averaging only 10.8 points and 3.2 assists over the last five games, totaling just 14 points and assists combined, which falls short of the 13.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank in the top tier of the league defensively, limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, which makes it difficult for Harper to accumulate points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5, the game script suggests a fast pace, but Harper's current role likely means he won't dominate the playmaking duties, limiting his assist potential.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Harper has not hit double digits in assists once, indicating a consistent underperformance in this area that casts doubt on exceeding the required total.
→SITUATIONAL: Harper's recent playing time has been inconsistent, averaging just 21.8 minutes per game in the last five outings, which limits his opportunities to score and assist effectively.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: source1, source2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 10.8 points and 3.2 assists over the last 5 games, demonstrating he can produce significant offense, getting close to and occasionally exceeding the threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game's total is set at 232.5, indicating a high-scoring affair which tends to lead to more offensive opportunities and assists for players like Harper.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of -1.5 in favor of Detroit Pistons, the game is expected to be competitive, which typically means Harper will play more minutes and thus have better chances to exceed the points and assists threshold.
→TREND: Harper’s points and assists have improved slightly over the past few games, indicating a positive trajectory in his overall performance, with him recently getting more minutes on the court.
→SITUATIONAL: Both the Spurs and Pistons have strong winning records (San Antonio 40-16, Detroit 42-13), indicating that both teams will be playing hard, further pushing Harper to deliver as he is likely to be on the court during crunch time.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper is averaging only 10.8 points and 3.2 assists over the last five games, totaling just 14 points and assists combined, which falls short of the 13.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank in the top tier of the league defensively, limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, which makes it difficult for Harper to accumulate points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5, the game script suggests a fast pace, but Harper's current role likely means he won't dominate the playmaking duties, limiting his assist potential.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Harper has not hit double digits in assists once, indicating a consistent underperformance in this area that casts doubt on exceeding the required total.
→SITUATIONAL: Harper's recent playing time has been inconsistent, averaging just 21.8 minutes per game in the last five outings, which limits his opportunities to score and assist effectively.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: source1, source2

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