Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 25.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+360↓130%|+1560

player points rebounds alternate

Tobias Harris Over 25.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+360↓130%|+1560

player points rebounds alternate

63.40

Composite Score

+29.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Tobias Harris Over 25.5 points and rebounds makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the game, with a total set at 232.5. The competitiveness indicated by the tight spread of Pistons -1.5 suggests heavy minutes for Harris, who has shown the ability to contribute effectively in scoring and rebounding, particularly against teams he has faced recently. With a Net EV of 0.29, this bet reflects a favorable situation where the market may have undervalued his impact in a game likely to feature increased possessions.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 92%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last 5 games while also contributing an average of 3.6 rebounds, making him a consistent contributor in scoring and boards.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 232.5, indicating an expected high-scoring affair, which favors increased opportunities for Harris to excel in points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: Given the tight spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is likely to remain competitive, which means Harris will receive heavy minutes (31.6 minutes per game on the season), enhancing his chances to exceed the 11.5 total.
→TREND: Harris has been performing well against the Pistons recently, registering 7 rebounds in their last matchup, indicating he has the potential to accumulate both points and rebounds effectively.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 5-game win streak, creating a momentum that could lead to a fast pace in the game, allowing for more possessions, thus increasing Harris's opportunities to exceed the threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged only 3.6 rebounds in his last five games, significantly lower than his needed contribution for the combined points and rebounds to exceed 11.5.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are the top team in their division and have been strong defensively, likely limiting Harris’s opportunities to score and rebound efficiently.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this game has a small spread and a high predicted total, it is probable that both teams will play close to their full starting units without significant garbage time, restricting potential production for Harris.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Harris only managed to contribute 7 rebounds, indicating a historical trend of underperformance against this specific team.
→SITUATIONAL: The intense competition in a high-stakes game against a top-seed team like the Pistons may cause Harris to play a limited role, especially when considering the Pistons' defensive strength which could stifle his scoring and rebounding efforts.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 92%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last 5 games while also contributing an average of 3.6 rebounds, making him a consistent contributor in scoring and boards.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 232.5, indicating an expected high-scoring affair, which favors increased opportunities for Harris to excel in points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: Given the tight spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is likely to remain competitive, which means Harris will receive heavy minutes (31.6 minutes per game on the season), enhancing his chances to exceed the 11.5 total.
→TREND: Harris has been performing well against the Pistons recently, registering 7 rebounds in their last matchup, indicating he has the potential to accumulate both points and rebounds effectively.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 5-game win streak, creating a momentum that could lead to a fast pace in the game, allowing for more possessions, thus increasing Harris's opportunities to exceed the threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+310+61.3% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points rebounds alternate🚀

+225+56.3% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 49.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1060+40.1% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1000+39.3% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1020+39.2% EV