Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

De'Aaron Fox Over 33.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+370↑82%|-1630

player points rebounds assists alternate

De'Aaron Fox Over 33.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+370↑82%|-1630

player points rebounds assists alternate

36.90

Composite Score

+6.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

31.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is for a high-scoring game as indicated by the 232.5 over/under total, likely benefiting De'Aaron Fox in accumulating points, rebounds, and assists. While his recent averages are slightly below the required threshold for the bet, the favorable matchup against the Pistons' weaker defense against point guards and anticipated heavy minutes due to a tight spread support the likelihood of reaching that 33.5 mark. The Net EV of 0.06 suggests a slight edge, making this a consideration for a lean bet rather than a confident strike due to the opposing factors presented by the other analysis.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox has averaged 20.4 points and 5.6 assists in his last five games, which translates to a combined total of approximately 30 points and assists alone, not including rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank lower defensively against point guards, which may allow Fox to exploit matchups for increased scoring and assist opportunities during the game.
→NARRATIVE: The high total of 232.5 indicates expectations for a fast-paced and high-scoring affair, which suggests both teams will have increased opportunities for points, rebounds, and assists.
→TREND: In games against the Spurs, Fox has consistently played heavy minutes (averaging over 34 minutes in recent matchups), giving him ample opportunity to accumulate stats.
→SITUATIONAL: The tight spread of -1.5 for the Pistons suggests a close competition, likely leading to Fox playing significant minutes and taking on integral roles in the game, enhancing his chances to hit the over on 44.5 combined stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox's recent averages show he has scored only 20.4 points and 5.6 assists per game, totaling roughly 26 points and assists, not accounting for rebounds, which places him far below the 44.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently on an 8-game winning streak, and their strong team defense could restrict Fox's overall production, especially in points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the game projected as closely contested (spread of only 1.5), it is likely that the starters will see heavy minutes, but not enough to inflate Fox's combined stats to exceed 44.5.
→TREND: In his recent matchups against San Antonio, Fox has consistently underperformed in scoring, with games averaging only 18.5 points over the last three encounters, further suggesting he won't meet the 44.5 mark here.
→SITUATIONAL: The game context shows both teams with strong records and playoffs in sight, which may lead to competitive intensity, resulting in reduced efficiency for individual players like Fox amid stiff defensive efforts.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox has averaged 20.4 points and 5.6 assists in his last five games, which translates to a combined total of approximately 30 points and assists alone, not including rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank lower defensively against point guards, which may allow Fox to exploit matchups for increased scoring and assist opportunities during the game.
→NARRATIVE: The high total of 232.5 indicates expectations for a fast-paced and high-scoring affair, which suggests both teams will have increased opportunities for points, rebounds, and assists.
→TREND: In games against the Spurs, Fox has consistently played heavy minutes (averaging over 34 minutes in recent matchups), giving him ample opportunity to accumulate stats.
→SITUATIONAL: The tight spread of -1.5 for the Pistons suggests a close competition, likely leading to Fox playing significant minutes and taking on integral roles in the game, enhancing his chances to hit the over on 44.5 combined stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+1060+43.1% EV

Stephon Castle Over 39.5 points rebounds assists alternate💤

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Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate💤

+660+35.7% EV

Dylan Harper Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate🚀

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