Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+453↓113%|+4053

player points rebounds assists alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+453↓113%|+4053

player points rebounds assists alternate

59.40

Composite Score

+21.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this expected high-scoring matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, Ausar Thompson is poised for a strong performance, as he has contributed significantly in points, rebounds, and assists recently. The combined narrative of a competitive game with anticipated prolonged minutes for Thompson, alongside his trend of consistent production against the Pistons, supports the Over on 24.5. The positive Net EV of 0.21 indicates that this wager is undervalued by the bookmaker, making it a solid bet opportunity.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in his last 5 games, which totals 19.4 P/R/A, comfortably exceeding the 14.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game is expected to be high-scoring with a total set at 232.5, which should facilitate more opportunities for Thompson to contribute in points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread at just 1.5 in favor of the Pistons, the game is likely to remain competitive, ensuring Thompson plays 35+ minutes, which correlates with higher stat outputs.
→TREND: In the last game against the Pistons, Thompson recorded 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists, showcasing his ability to perform well against this opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons' current 5-game win streak indicates a momentum that could lead to a fast-paced, high-energy game where Thompson can excel across multiple stat categories.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's last five games have shown he is averaging only 11.8 points per game, which is significantly below the threshold of 14.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined. His assists average is just 1.6, indicating limited involvement in creating scoring opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have one of the top defenses in the league, often limiting opponents' scoring and overall effectiveness. This is compounded by their recent success, making it difficult for Thompson to find open looks or contribute efficiently.
→NARRATIVE: Given the expected close nature of the game, both teams may rely on their starting lineups more heavily, which can lead to tight defense and reduced opportunities for Thompson to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists without the benefit of garbage time stats.
→TREND: In the last encounter against the Pistons, Thompson only managed a total of 10 points, rebounds, and assists combined, falling short of the 14.5 threshold. This suggests a pattern of underperformance against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons, currently on a five-game winning streak, are likely to come out strong, potentially leading to a situation where the game becomes a blowout. If this occurs, Thompson may see reduced minutes and opportunity to contribute, limiting his chances to exceed the 14.5 combined total.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Statistics

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in his last 5 games, which totals 19.4 P/R/A, comfortably exceeding the 14.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game is expected to be high-scoring with a total set at 232.5, which should facilitate more opportunities for Thompson to contribute in points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread at just 1.5 in favor of the Pistons, the game is likely to remain competitive, ensuring Thompson plays 35+ minutes, which correlates with higher stat outputs.
→TREND: In the last game against the Pistons, Thompson recorded 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists, showcasing his ability to perform well against this opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons' current 5-game win streak indicates a momentum that could lead to a fast-paced, high-energy game where Thompson can excel across multiple stat categories.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

+1060+43.1% EV

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