Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Stephon Castle double double

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+600↓9%|+50

player double double

Stephon Castle double double

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+600↓9%|+50

player double double

42.40

Composite Score

+3.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

17.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for this matchup leans towards a competitive game, but the evidence indicates that Stephon Castle may struggle to achieve a double-double. While the high total suggests offensive potential, Castle's recent performance has been lacking in rebounds and he faces a strong Spurs defense, raising doubts about his ability to reach the necessary stats. With a Net EV of 0.04, the slight edge suggests the market is fairly priced rather than underestimating him significantly.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle's recent averages show he is scoring 16.6 points and distributing 6.4 assists per game, indicating that he is close to achieving a double-double with a combination of decent scoring and assist stats.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons have a high total of 232.5, suggesting a fast-paced game that could result in more possessions and opportunities for Castle to accumulate points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of 1.5 in the game, it is likely that both teams will be competitive, allowing Castle to play significant minutes, which boosts his chances of reaching a double-double.
→TREND: In his last five games against the Spurs, Castle has totaled four or more rebounds two times, and he averaged 4.1 assists for the season, showing consistent potential to reach double digits in both categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game win streak and facing a strong opponent, which may result in Castle receiving increased playing time as they look to maintain their momentum and competitive edge.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Over the last five games, Stephon Castle is averaging only 2.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists, indicating he is falling short in the categories necessary for a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive presence which may limit Castle's ability to accumulate both high assists and rebounds during this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high-stakes nature of the game, where both teams are playoff contenders, it is likely Castle will face increased defensive attention, hampering his ability to hit the double-double mark.
→TREND: Castle has only achieved a double-double once this season, and his recent trend shows he is more of a scorer than a facilitator or rebounder, making this outcome increasingly unlikely.
→SITUATIONAL: Castle averages just 26.7 minutes on the floor, and if the game evolves into a competitive battle, he may not get the extended minutes necessary to achieve a double-double.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle's recent averages show he is scoring 16.6 points and distributing 6.4 assists per game, indicating that he is close to achieving a double-double with a combination of decent scoring and assist stats.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons have a high total of 232.5, suggesting a fast-paced game that could result in more possessions and opportunities for Castle to accumulate points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of 1.5 in the game, it is likely that both teams will be competitive, allowing Castle to play significant minutes, which boosts his chances of reaching a double-double.
→TREND: In his last five games against the Spurs, Castle has totaled four or more rebounds two times, and he averaged 4.1 assists for the season, showing consistent potential to reach double digits in both categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game win streak and facing a strong opponent, which may result in Castle receiving increased playing time as they look to maintain their momentum and competitive edge.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

Related Wagers

Ausar Thompson double double💤

+1280+7.4% EV

Tobias Harris double double💤

+1460+7.4% EV

Ausar Thompson double double💤

+1100+6.5% EV

Tobias Harris double double💤

+1150+6.1% EV

Tobias Harris double double💤

+1100+5.8% EV