Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Keldon Johnson Over 21.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+320↓155%|+900

player points rebounds alternate

Keldon Johnson Over 21.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+320↓155%|+900

player points rebounds alternate

61.20

Composite Score

+23.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Keldon Johnson Over 21.5 points and rebounds makes sense given the expected high pace of the game against the Detroit Pistons, who are known for their offensive style. With the Spurs on a winning streak and Johnson trending upwards, he is positioned to see significant minutes and accumulation of stats. The Net EV of 0.24 indicates that the market has likely undervalued this bet, making it a strong opportunity to capitalize on his potential performance.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has averaged 11.8 points and 6.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, bringing his total to 18 points plus rebounds per game, which comfortably exceeds the threshold of 9.5.
→MATCHUP: Facing the Detroit Pistons, who are known for a high-paced offense and averaging 232.5 points total in games, creates numerous opportunities for Johnson to accumulate points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of this matchup with a tight spread of -1.5 for the Pistons, it is expected to be a close game, allowing Johnson to play significant minutes and contribute heavily in both scoring and rebounds.
→TREND: Johnson's recent performance shows an increase in both points and rebounds, with individual games reflecting totals of 8 rebounds against the Lakers and 7 rebounds against the Cavaliers, indicating he is trending upwards in his ability to exceed this combined stat line.
→SITUATIONAL: Opting to play a competitive opponent like the Pistons often motivates players; the Spurs are also on a winning streak (W8), which adds momentum and confidence to Johnson's game as they seek to continue their success.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson's rebounds average of 6.2 and points average of 11.8 suggests he only narrowly exceeds the 9.5 threshold with a total of 17.9; however, slight fluctuations in performance could easily push him below it.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs face a strong defensive team in the Detroit Pistons, which may limit Johnson's scoring and rebounding opportunities, especially when matched against bigger forwards or centers.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this game has a small spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5), it is poised to be competitive, potentially leading to less court time for Johnson in critical moments compared to other games where his team had larger leads.
→TREND: Johnson's recent performance shows inconsistency, with his points and rebounds dipping below 9.5 in two of the last five games (including 4 rebounds in a recent matchup), indicating volatility that could hinder his ability to exceed the total.
→SITUATIONAL: Johnson's minutes per game are currently at 23.9; if the game stays competitive, there might be limited opportunities for him to play more than his average minutes, potentially restricting his overall contributions.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has averaged 11.8 points and 6.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, bringing his total to 18 points plus rebounds per game, which comfortably exceeds the threshold of 9.5.
→MATCHUP: Facing the Detroit Pistons, who are known for a high-paced offense and averaging 232.5 points total in games, creates numerous opportunities for Johnson to accumulate points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of this matchup with a tight spread of -1.5 for the Pistons, it is expected to be a close game, allowing Johnson to play significant minutes and contribute heavily in both scoring and rebounds.
→TREND: Johnson's recent performance shows an increase in both points and rebounds, with individual games reflecting totals of 8 rebounds against the Lakers and 7 rebounds against the Cavaliers, indicating he is trending upwards in his ability to exceed this combined stat line.
→SITUATIONAL: Opting to play a competitive opponent like the Pistons often motivates players; the Spurs are also on a winning streak (W8), which adds momentum and confidence to Johnson's game as they seek to continue their success.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

+310+61.3% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 14.5 points rebounds alternate🚀

+225+56.3% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 49.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1060+40.1% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1000+39.3% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤

+1020+39.2% EV