Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Javonte Green Over 9.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+425— stable

player points alternate

Javonte Green Over 9.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+425— stable

player points alternate

38.20

Composite Score

+1.6%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

27.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation of a competitive game with a high total suggests increased scoring opportunities, but Javonte Green has struggled to reach double digits, averaging only 6.2 points in recent games. The strong defensive play of the Spurs, coupled with critical minutes likely focused on key stars, diminishes Green's chances to hit the Over on 9.5 points. The Net EV of 0.02 indicates a minimal edge, and with the anti agent's stronger narrative, this bet doesn't offer enough value to warrant a stake.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Javonte Green has averaged 6.2 points per game over his last five outings, which, while below the 9.5 threshold, shows a potential for increased scoring given the right game context.
→MATCHUP: The high game total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more scoring opportunities for all players, including Green, who may benefit from increased possessions.
→NARRATIVE: The close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates a competitive game, meaning key players, including Green, are likely to see extended minutes which could elevate his point total.
→TREND: Green had a strong performance in a recent game against the Pistons where he scored 18 points, suggesting he can rise to the occasion against this opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: With Detroit on a five-game winning streak and San Antonio on an eight-game streak, both teams are motivated to keep up their winning forms, likely leading to an intense game atmosphere that may elevate player performance, including scoring.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 81%

Evidence

→STATS: Javonte Green's season average of 5.1 points per game and recent performance of 6.2 points over the last 5 games significantly suggest that he has struggled to reach double-digit scoring, making it unlikely he exceeds 9.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are a strong defensive team, currently ranked as the 2nd seed with a solid win percentage, indicating they are less likely to allow high individual scoring, especially against players like Green who have limited scoring output.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the game with a close spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5) and expected high total (232.5), both teams are likely to rely on their stars and primary scorers, minimizing Green's opportunities to shine or score significant points.
→TREND: Green's scoring has shown a downward trend in recent performances, averaging just 6.2 points over his last 5 games, which falls well below the 9.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
→SITUATIONAL: With the game being highly competitive and both teams in playoff contention, there could be a risk of limited minutes for Green, further diminishing his chances to reach the required scoring mark as he likely won't be a focal point in the offense.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Javonte Green has averaged 6.2 points per game over his last five outings, which, while below the 9.5 threshold, shows a potential for increased scoring given the right game context.
→MATCHUP: The high game total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more scoring opportunities for all players, including Green, who may benefit from increased possessions.
→NARRATIVE: The close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates a competitive game, meaning key players, including Green, are likely to see extended minutes which could elevate his point total.
→TREND: Green had a strong performance in a recent game against the Pistons where he scored 18 points, suggesting he can rise to the occasion against this opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: With Detroit on a five-game winning streak and San Antonio on an eight-game streak, both teams are motivated to keep up their winning forms, likely leading to an intense game atmosphere that may elevate player performance, including scoring.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+1100+37.5% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

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Javonte Green Over 4.5 rebounds alternate💤

+600+25.3% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 17.5 points alternate💤

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Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points alternate💤

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