Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Harrison Barnes Over 11.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-118— stable

player points rebounds assists

Harrison Barnes Over 11.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-118— stable

player points rebounds assists

57.60

Composite Score

+9.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

48.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet makes sense given the expectation of a high-paced and competitive game between the Spurs and Pistons, as indicated by the high total of 232.5. Harrison Barnes has shown recent consistency with his scoring and minutes, averaging 12.8 points along with solid production in rebounds and assists, which aligns well with the narrative of both teams maximizing their offensive opportunities. The Net EV of 0.10 suggests that the market underpriced this bet, indicating a favorable edge worth pursuing.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Harrison Barnes has averaged 12.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.4 assists over his last 5 games, totaling 18.8 in combined points, rebounds, and assists, comfortably exceeding the 11.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 in the game indicates an expected fast-paced, high-scoring affair, which typically correlates with increased player production, especially for a player like Barnes who often benefits from offensive opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams boasting strong records (San Antonio Spurs at 40-16 and Detroit Pistons at 42-13), the game is likely to be competitive, leading to more minutes for starters like Barnes to maximize their stats.
→TREND: Barnes has demonstrated consistency over his last 5 games, scoring at least 12 points in four of them, showcasing that he is in solid form and capable of exceeding the combined points, rebounds, and assists total.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of 1.5 indicates a tightly contested matchup, suggesting that Barnes will likely see substantial playing time, which is critical for accumulating stats across points, rebounds, and assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Harrison Barnes has averaged only 12.8 points in his last five games, which, when combined with his rebounds (3.6) and assists (2.4), totals only 18.8, but he has seen some variance in those games that makes consistency difficult.
→MATCHUP: Facing the Detroit Pistons, who are currently 1st in the Central Division with a strong defense, presents a challenging scenario for Barnes to produce high stats as they limit opponents' efficiency.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be close, as indicated by a small spread of 1.5. In closer games, teams typically rely on their primary scorers, which could mean less opportunity for Barnes, who is not the primary option on the team.
→TREND: In the last five games, Barnes has fluctuated in minutes from 27 to 35. His erratic playing time indicates he may not consistently find his rhythm to exceed the required stat threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams come into this game following winning streaks, which could result in a highly competitive matchup, potentially limiting individual performances as both teams focus on defense.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Harrison Barnes has averaged 12.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.4 assists over his last 5 games, totaling 18.8 in combined points, rebounds, and assists, comfortably exceeding the 11.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 in the game indicates an expected fast-paced, high-scoring affair, which typically correlates with increased player production, especially for a player like Barnes who often benefits from offensive opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams boasting strong records (San Antonio Spurs at 40-16 and Detroit Pistons at 42-13), the game is likely to be competitive, leading to more minutes for starters like Barnes to maximize their stats.
→TREND: Barnes has demonstrated consistency over his last 5 games, scoring at least 12 points in four of them, showcasing that he is in solid form and capable of exceeding the combined points, rebounds, and assists total.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of 1.5 indicates a tightly contested matchup, suggesting that Barnes will likely see substantial playing time, which is critical for accumulating stats across points, rebounds, and assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

-125+6.1% EV

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