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Duncan Robinson Under 15.5 points rebounds assists

💤 Noise Bet

-125— stable

player points rebounds assists

Duncan Robinson Under 15.5 points rebounds assists

💤 Noise Bet

-125— stable

player points rebounds assists

36.70

Composite Score

+6.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

30.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the slight Net EV of 0.06, it's reasonable to question betting on Duncan Robinson Under 15.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. While the San Antonio Spurs' strong defense may limit his opportunities, his recent averages and the Pistons' tendency to allow scoring make this bet risky. The split narrative analysis indicates no clear edge, suggesting this wager could be adequately priced, so passing is the most prudent choice.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 45%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's verified average points per game is only 9.0 over the last 5 games, well below the 15.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive rating, which could limit Robinson's scoring opportunities, further decreasing his chances of exceeding 15.5 in combined points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 232.5, while it's considered high, if the game becomes competitive, Robinson's minutes might not increase significantly, leading to a limited number of scoring possessions.
→TREND: Robinson has averaged only 1.0 assists over his last 5 games, indicating he is not contributing significantly in the playmaking department, which hurts his chances of exceeding the combined total.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the close spread of 1.5, this game could remain competitive throughout, potentially affecting the overall offensive output and limiting opportunities for Robinson to extend beyond his averages.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 11.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists this season, totaling 15.7, which exceeds the threshold of 15.5 points/rebounds/assists combined.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons allow high opposing team scoring, currently giving up an average of 114.2 points per game, creating an opportunity for Robinson to contribute significantly in scoring.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams boasting strong playoff positions and a close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, allowing Robinson to stay on the court longer and increase his chances of exceeding the threshold.
→TREND: In his last game against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson had a strong performance, accumulating 22 combined points/rebounds/assists, showcasing that he can excel against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The high total of 232.5 in this game suggests a fast-paced play style, which correlates with more possessions and likely higher stats for Robinson, particularly in scoring and assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 45%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's verified average points per game is only 9.0 over the last 5 games, well below the 15.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive rating, which could limit Robinson's scoring opportunities, further decreasing his chances of exceeding 15.5 in combined points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 232.5, while it's considered high, if the game becomes competitive, Robinson's minutes might not increase significantly, leading to a limited number of scoring possessions.
→TREND: Robinson has averaged only 1.0 assists over his last 5 games, indicating he is not contributing significantly in the playmaking department, which hurts his chances of exceeding the combined total.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the close spread of 1.5, this game could remain competitive throughout, potentially affecting the overall offensive output and limiting opportunities for Robinson to extend beyond his averages.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

-118+9.6% EV

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-130+5.4% EV

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