Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Under 16.5 points rebounds assists

💤 Noise Bet

-103— stable

player points rebounds assists

Dylan Harper Under 16.5 points rebounds assists

💤 Noise Bet

-103— stable

player points rebounds assists

34.60

Composite Score

+5.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

25.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, expectations lean towards a competitive game where Harper's limited scoring potential is supported by the Spurs' strong defense and his inconsistent playing time. Though the quantitative assessment shows a slight +EV, the qualitative factors indicate that a closely contested game could restrict his minutes further, making it difficult for him to exceed the 16.5 mark. Therefore, while the edge exists, it is not significant enough to warrant a bet on the Under.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper's recent performance averages only 10.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, totaling just 17.6, but relying on higher production from each stat is not sustainable against tougher defenses.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are currently strong defensively with a 40-16 record, meaning they are likely to apply pressure that could limit Harper's ability to score and accumulate stats.
→NARRATIVE: Considering that the Pistons have a small spread of -1.5, the game is expected to be closely contested; however, given Harper's fluctuating minutes in previous games, he may not see enough time to exceed 16.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
→TREND: Harper's recent performance highlights inconsistency; in his last game against the Spurs, he only played 16 minutes, gathering limited stats, suggesting a repetitive trend of underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: There is no indication of load management or injuries for either team, but the competitive nature of the matchup may lead to fewer minutes for Harper or a potential blowout, impacting his overall contributions.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 10.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists over his last 5 games, demonstrating a potential ability to produce more than 16.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs rank 26th in opponent points allowed per game, which suggests a favorable environment for Harper to exploit defensive weaknesses and increase his scoring and assist numbers.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring total of 232.5, the game's pace should allow for more opportunities for players to accumulate stats, making it more likely for Harper to exceed the 16.5 threshold.
→TREND: Dylan Harper's minutes have fluctuated, but his last game against the Spurs, where he played 27 minutes and accumulated 20 combined points, rebounds, and assists, indicates that he can perform at a higher level when given the opportunity.
→SITUATIONAL: The small spread of -1.5 indicates that this will be a competitive game, likely resulting in close minutes for Harper as both teams will rely on their starters, allowing him the chance to hit his statistical over.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper's recent performance averages only 10.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, totaling just 17.6, but relying on higher production from each stat is not sustainable against tougher defenses.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are currently strong defensively with a 40-16 record, meaning they are likely to apply pressure that could limit Harper's ability to score and accumulate stats.
→NARRATIVE: Considering that the Pistons have a small spread of -1.5, the game is expected to be closely contested; however, given Harper's fluctuating minutes in previous games, he may not see enough time to exceed 16.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
→TREND: Harper's recent performance highlights inconsistency; in his last game against the Spurs, he only played 16 minutes, gathering limited stats, suggesting a repetitive trend of underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: There is no indication of load management or injuries for either team, but the competitive nature of the matchup may lead to fewer minutes for Harper or a potential blowout, impacting his overall contributions.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

-118+9.6% EV

Duncan Robinson Under 15.5 points rebounds assists💤

-125+6.1% EV

Julian Champagnie Under 12.5 points rebounds assists💤

-105+5.5% EV

Duncan Robinson Under 15.5 points rebounds assists💤

-130+5.4% EV

Dylan Harper Under 16.5 points rebounds assists💤

-104+4.8% EV