Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 19.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+240↓124%|+1240

player points rebounds assists alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 19.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+240↓124%|+1240

player points rebounds assists alternate

57.20

Composite Score

+18.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the high total of 232.5 for the game and Duncan Robinson’s favorable matchup against the Detroit Pistons, this bet on the Over 19.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists makes sense. The Pistons’ lower defensive ranking against three-point shooters aligns with Robinson's strengths, and the competitive nature of the game likely means he will see sufficient minutes to achieve over the threshold. The positive Net EV of 0.18 suggests the market is underestimating his potential in this matchup, making this a great opportunity to wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson averages 9.0 points in his last five games, which is above the 8.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons ranked lower in defending against three-point shooting and perimeter players, which facilitates scoring opportunities for Robinson as he specializes in shooting from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected fast pace suggests additional possessions that will allow Robinson more opportunities to hit the over on points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson recorded significant contributions with 4 rebounds and 4 assists, totaling 12 combined stats, showing he can exceed the threshold against this team.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of 1.5 indicates a competitive game, likely leading to Robinson playing heavy minutes (24+), giving him ample opportunity to accumulate the necessary stats to exceed the 8.5 mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 9.0 points over the last 5 games and only 1.0 assists, indicating he struggles to accumulate stats in multiple categories, making it unlikely he hits over 8.5 in combined points, rebounds, and assists.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defense, sitting at 2nd in points allowed per game, which will challenge Robinson's scoring ability given he often relies on outside shooting against tight defenses.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a projected total of 232.5, suggesting a fast-paced game; however, this often benefits primary players rather than role players like Robinson, who may not see a significant increase in minutes or usage.
→TREND: Robinson's performance over the last 5 games shows he hit only 10 total rebounds and assists combined, averaging just 2.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists, indicating a lack of contribution to those categories.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Detroit Pistons boasting a strong winning record and defensive prowess, there may be a tendency for blowouts or high-pressure situations that could limit Robinson's minutes, especially if the game is competitive for the starters.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson averages 9.0 points in his last five games, which is above the 8.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons ranked lower in defending against three-point shooting and perimeter players, which facilitates scoring opportunities for Robinson as he specializes in shooting from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected fast pace suggests additional possessions that will allow Robinson more opportunities to hit the over on points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson recorded significant contributions with 4 rebounds and 4 assists, totaling 12 combined stats, showing he can exceed the threshold against this team.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of 1.5 indicates a competitive game, likely leading to Robinson playing heavy minutes (24+), giving him ample opportunity to accumulate the necessary stats to exceed the 8.5 mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+1060+43.1% EV

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