Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 19.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+600↓113%|+5300

player points rebounds alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 19.5 points rebounds alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+600↓113%|+5300

player points rebounds alternate

62.20

Composite Score

+32.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In the upcoming game between the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons, expectations are set for a high-scoring affair given the game total of 232.5, which indicates ample scoring opportunities. Champagnie is likely to benefit from elevated minutes due to the competitive nature of the matchup, where both teams are vying for playoff positioning. The Net EV of 0.32 confirms that this bet represents good value, aligning with the narrative of increased engagement for Champagnie, making it a compelling pick for exceeding the combined points and rebounds total.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points and 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, totaling 18.2 combined points and rebounds, well above the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game features a high total of 232.5, indicating a fast-paced game that is likely to generate more scoring opportunities and rebounds for players involved.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, a close game is expected which will likely lead to Champagnie playing 35-40 minutes, increasing his chances to exceed the combined 9.5 points and rebounds.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown consistent improvement recently, averaging 6.0 rebounds per game in his last two outings, which supports higher combined totals.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons have an impressive home record, likely leading to a competitive game environment, increasing Champagnie's engagement and usage rate, further supporting the likelihood of him exceeding the 9.5 combined total.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4235978/julian-champagnie, https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2023.html

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie averages only 12.2 points per game over the last five games, but this includes rebounds and not all of those games had him surpassing the 9.5 points and rebounds alternate mark combined.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 1st in the Central Division with a strong defense that can limit both points and rebounds for opponents, making it a tough matchup for Champagnie to exceed his combined total.
→NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of only 1.5 points, this game is likely to be closely contested, which may limit the number of scoring opportunities for both teams, leading to fewer combined stats for players like Champagnie.
→TREND: In the last five games, while he has exhibited strong rebounding numbers averaging 6.0 boards, his scoring has flopped below consistency, as he’s unable to consistently create open shots against defensive pressure.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on a hot streak, winning 8 straight games, which could lead to a potential blowout situation. If the game gets out of hand, Champagnie may find himself with limited minutes as starters are typically pulled in competitive games, impacting his ability to exceed the alternate line.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points and 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, totaling 18.2 combined points and rebounds, well above the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game features a high total of 232.5, indicating a fast-paced game that is likely to generate more scoring opportunities and rebounds for players involved.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, a close game is expected which will likely lead to Champagnie playing 35-40 minutes, increasing his chances to exceed the combined 9.5 points and rebounds.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown consistent improvement recently, averaging 6.0 rebounds per game in his last two outings, which supports higher combined totals.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons have an impressive home record, likely leading to a competitive game environment, increasing Champagnie's engagement and usage rate, further supporting the likelihood of him exceeding the 9.5 combined total.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4235978/julian-champagnie, https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2023.html

+310+61.3% EV

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