Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ron Holland Over 9.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+255↑76%|-805

player points alternate

Ron Holland Over 9.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+255↑76%|-805

player points alternate

32.70

Composite Score

-11.2%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

35.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Ron Holland to go Over 9.5 points doesn't make sense given the expected narrative of this game. The Spurs are expected to face a competitive matchup against the Pistons, which could limit scoring opportunities for players like Holland, especially without any clear supporting stats for his scoring capability. The Net EV of -0.11 indicates that the market is likely positioned correctly, and the anti agent's strong evidence suggests that this bet is overpriced, reinforcing the decision to pass.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Ron Holland.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, providing more scoring opportunities for all players, potentially aiding Holland in exceeding 14.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: The Spurs come into this game on an 8-game winning streak, which creates a competitive atmosphere that could ignite higher individual performances, including scoring.
→TREND: Data not available for recent performance trend as specific game logs for Ron Holland are missing.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who are a top team themselves, could lead to a close contest where players are required to step up, translating to higher scoring chances for Holland.

Thesis: moderate

Market: slightly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Ron Holland; it raises significant concerns about his ability to surpass 14.5 points without any baseline statistics or recent performance history to support this outcome.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs rank 1st in the Southwest Division, indicating they are a solid team defensively, which could limit Holland's scoring opportunities against a strong defensive squad.
→NARRATIVE: The expectation for a close game (spread of -1.5) suggests that the contest may be competitive, leading to fewer chances for a player to score heavily as both teams will likely focus on defense.
→TREND: Data not available for recent performance trends of Ron Holland, which would typically provide insights into his current scoring ability and consistency.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are in excellent form with strong win records, suggesting an intense game environment that could restrict individual scoring efforts, especially for players less prominently featured.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Ron Holland.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, providing more scoring opportunities for all players, potentially aiding Holland in exceeding 14.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: The Spurs come into this game on an 8-game winning streak, which creates a competitive atmosphere that could ignite higher individual performances, including scoring.
→TREND: Data not available for recent performance trend as specific game logs for Ron Holland are missing.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who are a top team themselves, could lead to a close contest where players are required to step up, translating to higher scoring chances for Holland.

Thesis: moderate

Market: slightly disagree

+1100+37.5% EV

Ron Holland Over 7.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1200+35.2% EV

Ron Holland Over 6.5 rebounds alternate💤

+630+30.1% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 17.5 points alternate💤

+1260+17.4% EV