Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 39.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+544↓133%|+2184

player points rebounds assists alternate

Jalen Duren Over 39.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+544↓133%|+2184

player points rebounds assists alternate

60.10

Composite Score

+23.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Expect a competitive game with significant scoring opportunities, aligning with the high total set at 232.5 and a close spread of -1.5. Jalen Duren has been trending positively in recent games, averaging 14.2 points and 9.4 rebounds, and with the Pistons likely needing his contributions to secure a win, he should see ample minutes to exceed the 19.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists. The Net EV of 0.23 indicates that the market may not fully account for Duren's rising performance alongside the advantageous matchup against the Spurs.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 14.2 points and 9.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, which combined with assists brings him close to the 19.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a high-scoring offense (total of 232.5), suggesting that Duren will have ample opportunities to accumulate points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be close (spread at -1.5), Duren is likely to play significant minutes, enhancing his potential to exceed the 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists mark.
→TREND: Duren has shown improvement during this stretch and has recorded 10+ combined points, rebounds, and assists consistently, indicating a trend towards exceeding this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks (Pistons at 5, Spurs at 8), which heightens the competitive intensity and generally leads to higher-performance outputs from key players like Duren.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren's season average is only 24.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists (11.8 + 10.3 + 2.7), indicating he is generally below the required threshold of 19.5.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank highly defensively, which may limit Duren's opportunities, particularly as he plays against a team that is currently on an 8-game winning streak, suggesting they are playing at a high level.
→NARRATIVE: With the game spread at just -1.5 in favor of Detroit, there's a high chance that the game will be competitive, potentially restricting the number of minutes played if it stays close.
→TREND: In the last five games, Duren has only averaged 14.2 points per game, 9.4 rebounds, and 0.8 assists. This totals 24.4, but key contributors may eat into his stats in a competitive game.
→SITUATIONAL: Duren’s average playing time per game is 26.1 minutes, which may not increase significantly in a close matchup, limiting his ability to accumulate stats in each category required to hit the over.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 14.2 points and 9.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, which combined with assists brings him close to the 19.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a high-scoring offense (total of 232.5), suggesting that Duren will have ample opportunities to accumulate points and rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be close (spread at -1.5), Duren is likely to play significant minutes, enhancing his potential to exceed the 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists mark.
→TREND: Duren has shown improvement during this stretch and has recorded 10+ combined points, rebounds, and assists consistently, indicating a trend towards exceeding this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks (Pistons at 5, Spurs at 8), which heightens the competitive intensity and generally leads to higher-performance outputs from key players like Duren.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+1060+43.1% EV

Stephon Castle Over 39.5 points rebounds assists alternate💤

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Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate💤

+660+35.7% EV

Dylan Harper Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate🚀

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Dylan Harper Over 23.5 points rebounds assists alternate🚀

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