Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 14.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🎯 Core Value Bet

+123↓133%|+497

player points rebounds assists alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 14.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🎯 Core Value Bet

+123↓133%|+497

player points rebounds assists alternate

76.60

Composite Score

+27.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

77.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons are in a projected high-scoring matchup, with a total set at 232.5, creating ample opportunity for points, rebounds, and assists. Julian Champagnie’s recent upward trend in contributions, averaging nearly 20 combined points, rebounds, and assists over his last five games, aligns well with the expectation of competitive play that will keep the starters on the floor. The Net EV of 0.27 suggests that the market has mispriced his chances, making this a solid bet in a favorable context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists over his last 5 games, giving him a total of 19.8 contributions in points, rebounds, and assists, easily surpassing the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 232.5, indicating a high-scoring matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, which creates more opportunities for players like Champagnie to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, we expect a competitive game where both teams will heavily rely on their starters, allowing Champagnie to get more minutes and opportunities to contribute.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Champagnie has consistently been contributing more, not only scoring efficiently with an average of 12.2 points per game but also increasing his rebounding contributions, indicating a positive upward trend in his performance.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams have strong winning streaks (Spurs W8, Pistons W5), which could lead to an intense, fast-paced game environment where players are motivated to perform at their best, further supporting Champagnie's potential to exceed the 9.5 mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie's recent averages show inconsistency, with 12.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in the last 5 games, which totals only 19.8 combined; however, these numbers can be misleading as they are heavily reliant on rebounds, and his total PRA has been lower in several games.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are currently the 2nd seed in the west with a strong defense, which could limit Champagnie's scoring opportunities and overall contributions to points, rebounds, and assists in this matchup against a higher-seeded team.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive stakes for both teams, if the game is close, the starters will likely see heavy minutes. Yet, if the game becomes a blowout, there's a risk of Champagnie being pulled early, thereby reducing his chances to contribute significantly across all stat categories.
→TREND: Champagnie's scoring has seen spikes but also periods of low output, including several games below the expected mark. The trend indicates that he may not consistently reach double-digit contributions in all three areas combined.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Spurs on a hot 8-game winning streak and the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak, the intensity of the game could lead to defensive matchmaking strategies that limit Champagnie’s opportunities further, particularly in a tough game context where both teams are vying for playoff positioning.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists over his last 5 games, giving him a total of 19.8 contributions in points, rebounds, and assists, easily surpassing the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 232.5, indicating a high-scoring matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, which creates more opportunities for players like Champagnie to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, we expect a competitive game where both teams will heavily rely on their starters, allowing Champagnie to get more minutes and opportunities to contribute.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Champagnie has consistently been contributing more, not only scoring efficiently with an average of 12.2 points per game but also increasing his rebounding contributions, indicating a positive upward trend in his performance.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams have strong winning streaks (Spurs W8, Pistons W5), which could lead to an intense, fast-paced game environment where players are motivated to perform at their best, further supporting Champagnie's potential to exceed the 9.5 mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+1060+43.1% EV

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