Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Under 12.5 points assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110— stable

player points assists

Duncan Robinson Under 12.5 points assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110— stable

player points assists

30.70

Composite Score

+3.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

14.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is for a competitive matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, but Duncan Robinson's recent performance and limited average minutes suggest he may struggle to surpass 12.5 points and assists. The Pro agent provides significant evidence of Robinson's struggles against the strong Pistons defense and acknowledges his limited role within high-scoring games, supporting the Under. The Net EV of 0.03 is indicative, as it shows slight value in the Under given the trends and matchup factors, even if it's marginally positive.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's recent stats reflect an average of only 9.0 points per game and 1.0 assists per game over the last five games, which totals just 10.0 points and assists combined, indicating he is well below the threshold of 12.5.
→MATCHUP: Facing the Detroit Pistons, who are currently first in their division with a strong defensive record, Robinson is likely to struggle finding open looks and creating assists, as they are particularly effective at limiting opposing shooting percentages.
→NARRATIVE: With the game being projected as a high-scoring affair at a total of 232.5, this often leads to increased focus on primary scorers and ball handlers within high-powered offenses, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to contribute significantly.
→TREND: In his past five games, Robinson has only exceeded a total of 12.5 points and assists in one game, rendering any recurring prior performances highly indicative of his current form, which does not support exceeding this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Robinson has averaged only 24.1 minutes per game this season, and if this game turns into a competitive one, he may not receive enough court time to accumulate the necessary stats to surpass 12.5, especially against a well-rounded Pistons defensive unit.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 9.0 points per game over his last 5 games, but he has also been more heavily utilized in matchups against the Pistons, scoring a notable 21 points in one of those encounters.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' fast pace and high-scoring offense create an environment conducive to high aggregate points, allowing Robinson more opportunities for points and assists during the game.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams having high win percentages and current streaks (Spurs W8, Pistons W5), this matchup is expected to be highly competitive, likely leading to extended minutes for Robinson, thus enhancing his scoring and assists potential.
→TREND: Despite averaging 11.0 points across the season, Robinson has seen games where he can exceed this threshold, especially when he plays more than 24 minutes, which is likely in this tight matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The game features a total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring game environment, and indicates that Robinson's opportunities for scoring and assists should be increased due to the pace of play.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's recent stats reflect an average of only 9.0 points per game and 1.0 assists per game over the last five games, which totals just 10.0 points and assists combined, indicating he is well below the threshold of 12.5.
→MATCHUP: Facing the Detroit Pistons, who are currently first in their division with a strong defensive record, Robinson is likely to struggle finding open looks and creating assists, as they are particularly effective at limiting opposing shooting percentages.
→NARRATIVE: With the game being projected as a high-scoring affair at a total of 232.5, this often leads to increased focus on primary scorers and ball handlers within high-powered offenses, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to contribute significantly.
→TREND: In his past five games, Robinson has only exceeded a total of 12.5 points and assists in one game, rendering any recurring prior performances highly indicative of his current form, which does not support exceeding this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Robinson has averaged only 24.1 minutes per game this season, and if this game turns into a competitive one, he may not receive enough court time to accumulate the necessary stats to surpass 12.5, especially against a well-rounded Pistons defensive unit.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

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