Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Over 23.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+350↓174%|+820

player points rebounds assists alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 23.5 points rebounds assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+350↓174%|+820

player points rebounds assists alternate

62.10

Composite Score

+27.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expected game narrative points towards a fast-paced and high-scoring environment, with both teams averaging over 114 points per game. Ausar Thompson's recent upward trend in performance, highlighted by a scoring and contributing ability across multiple stats, suggests he is poised to exceed the 23.5 PRA threshold in this matchup. With a Net EV of 0.28 indicating the market may be undervaluing his potential, this supports taking the Over for Thompson's combined stats.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists over his last 5 games, totaling 19.4 PRAs, significantly exceeding the 10.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons face the Spurs, who have allowed an average of 114.4 points per game this season, indicating a high-scoring environment that will enhance Thompson's opportunities to contribute across multiple statistical categories.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 232.5, this is expected to be a fast-paced matchup, which typically leads to increased scoring and more opportunities for players like Thompson to accumulate PRAs.
→TREND: Thompson's performance has shown improvement, notably reaching double figures in points in 4 of his last 5 games, signaling a favorable upward trend in his overall contribution.
→SITUATIONAL: Detroit is on a 5-game winning streak, suggesting a competitive atmosphere that may require Thompson to play significant minutes, contributing to higher totals in points, rebounds, and assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's season averages indicate limited scoring and playmaking potential, with only 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. These numbers suggest he struggles to consistently exceed the combined threshold of 10.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank among the league's tougher defenses, which could make it difficult for Thompson to find scoring opportunities and contribute to the rebound and assist totals needed to surpass 10.5.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5, the game may be fast-paced; however, the Spurs’ defense could neutralize Thompson's impact by focusing on limiting his contributions, leading to a game script that doesn't favor his exceeding 10.5 combined stats.
→TREND: In his previous matchup against the Pistons, Thompson only managed 10 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 26 minutes of play, highlighting his inability to exceed the threshold even in a game with potentially favorable scoring conditions.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are currently on a five-game winning streak, and the Spurs are ranked second in the Western Conference with a strong record. This competitive environment increases the likelihood of Thompson receiving fewer minutes if the game is close and competitive, hindering his chances of surpassing 10.5 combined stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists over his last 5 games, totaling 19.4 PRAs, significantly exceeding the 10.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons face the Spurs, who have allowed an average of 114.4 points per game this season, indicating a high-scoring environment that will enhance Thompson's opportunities to contribute across multiple statistical categories.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 232.5, this is expected to be a fast-paced matchup, which typically leads to increased scoring and more opportunities for players like Thompson to accumulate PRAs.
→TREND: Thompson's performance has shown improvement, notably reaching double figures in points in 4 of his last 5 games, signaling a favorable upward trend in his overall contribution.
→SITUATIONAL: Detroit is on a 5-game winning streak, suggesting a competitive atmosphere that may require Thompson to play significant minutes, contributing to higher totals in points, rebounds, and assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+1060+43.1% EV

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