Back to Houston Cougars @ Kansas Jayhawks

Emanuel Sharp Over 1.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-140— stable

player assists

Emanuel Sharp Over 1.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-140— stable

player assists

55.30

Composite Score

+17.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

77.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, Emanuel Sharp is expected to find opportunities for assists as the Kansas Jayhawks have struggled defensively against guards, allowing for higher assist totals. Given the game's competitive nature and higher total of 138.5, it's likely that Sharp will be more active in creating plays, increasing his chances of exceeding the 1.5 assists mark. The Net EV of 0.17 indicates that the market has undervalued this bet, supporting the idea that Sharp can deliver at least 2 assists in this context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Emanuel Sharp, as a guard for the Houston Cougars, has shown the ability to assist effectively within his role, achieving 2.2 assists per game on average over his last few outings.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled defensively against opposing guards, allowing their opponents to rack up higher assist totals, which bodes well for Sharp's chances of dishing out multiple assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game features a tight spread of Kansas Jayhawks +2.5, the expectation is for a competitive matchup that will keep starters on the floor longer, increasing Sharp's potential for more assists.
→TREND: Recently, Sharp has been trending upward, contributing more to Houston's offensive flow especially in games with a higher total, which is suggested by the game's total set at 138.5.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Cougars are looking to bounce back from two recent losses, adding motivation for players like Sharp to step up and support the team's offensive performance, leading to a greater opportunity for assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Emanuel Sharp has not demonstrated consistent assist performance this season, with his averages suggesting he often stays below 1.5 assists, making it unlikely he exceeds this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks possess a strong defense, particularly in the perimeter areas, which can limit playmaking opportunities and consequently reduce the likelihood of Sharp registering more than 1.5 assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of 2.5 points in this game, it is expected to be competitive, leading to fewer open court opportunities for Sharp to accumulate assists as teams will likely play tight defense.
→TREND: In the last few games, Sharp has struggled to find the open man, consistently recording fewer assists than expected, which indicates a trend of underperforming in distributing the ball.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Cougars are coming off a two-game losing streak, which may lead to a more conservative offensive approach and limit Sharp's creative opportunities to facilitate assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Emanuel Sharp, as a guard for the Houston Cougars, has shown the ability to assist effectively within his role, achieving 2.2 assists per game on average over his last few outings.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled defensively against opposing guards, allowing their opponents to rack up higher assist totals, which bodes well for Sharp's chances of dishing out multiple assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game features a tight spread of Kansas Jayhawks +2.5, the expectation is for a competitive matchup that will keep starters on the floor longer, increasing Sharp's potential for more assists.
→TREND: Recently, Sharp has been trending upward, contributing more to Houston's offensive flow especially in games with a higher total, which is suggested by the game's total set at 138.5.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Cougars are looking to bounce back from two recent losses, adding motivation for players like Sharp to step up and support the team's offensive performance, leading to a greater opportunity for assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2