Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein double double
💤 Noise Bet
+275— stable
player double double
Isaiah Hartenstein double double
💤 Noise Bet
+275— stable
player double double
33.30
Composite Score
+0.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
0.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the balanced narrative and the final Net EV score of 0.00, this bet on Isaiah Hartenstein's double-double becomes less appealing. While Hartenstein has shown the ability to contribute on the boards with a solid rebound average and has previously succeeded against the Thunder, his recent performance trends indicate he often falls short in scoring and boards against a strong Thunder defense. Additionally, the likelihood of reduced playing time if the Nuggets fall behind significantly devalues this wager, making it a riskier proposition.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, demonstrating his ability to contribute significantly in the rebounding category, which is crucial for achieving a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: Hartenstein has previously recorded a double-double against the Oklahoma City Thunder, posting 12 rebounds in their last matchup, indicating he can exploit favorable matchups against their frontcourt.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 233.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game which would lead to more possessions, increasing the chances for Hartenstein to accumulate both points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Recently, Hartenstein has increased his performance, averaging 10 rebounds and 7.6 points over the last five games, trending upwards toward achieving double figures in both categories.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nuggets are facing the top team in the league, and with their current standing, Hartenstein will likely see increased minutes to match the Thunder's intensity, especially after their streaky recent performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein's recent averages of 7.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game indicate he is below the threshold needed for a double-double, which requires at least 10 points and 10 rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that has a strong overall record and defensive efficiency, Hartenstein may struggle to generate sufficient points and boards against their robust frontline.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Denver Nuggets being underdogs, it's plausible that they will fall behind significantly, leading to reduced playing time for Hartenstein as the team likely turns to more perimeter-oriented strategies to catch up.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Hartenstein has not reached double-digit points in four out of those games, showcasing a concerning trend of offensive underperformance as he only surpassed 10 points once.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are heavy favorites in this matchup, indicated by the large 8-point spread. This raises the risk of a blowout, which could result in Hartenstein receiving limited minutes if he is pulled early due to the game outcome.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, demonstrating his ability to contribute significantly in the rebounding category, which is crucial for achieving a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: Hartenstein has previously recorded a double-double against the Oklahoma City Thunder, posting 12 rebounds in their last matchup, indicating he can exploit favorable matchups against their frontcourt.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 233.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game which would lead to more possessions, increasing the chances for Hartenstein to accumulate both points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Recently, Hartenstein has increased his performance, averaging 10 rebounds and 7.6 points over the last five games, trending upwards toward achieving double figures in both categories.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nuggets are facing the top team in the league, and with their current standing, Hartenstein will likely see increased minutes to match the Thunder's intensity, especially after their streaky recent performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
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