Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein double double
💤 Noise Bet
+330↓14%|+40
player double double
Isaiah Hartenstein double double
💤 Noise Bet
+330↓14%|+40
player double double
33.80
Composite Score
+0.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
2.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expectation for this matchup is that Hartenstein could struggle to reach a double-double due to the robust defense of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the risk of him seeing reduced minutes if the game becomes a blowout. While there are some positive factors like his rebounding ability and recent performance trends, these are outweighed by his recent scoring struggles and the likelihood that Denver may fall behind. The Net EV of 0.01 indicates that the wager isn’t underpriced enough to justify a bet, especially considering the strong opposing case made against it.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, demonstrating his ability to contribute significantly in the rebounding category, which is crucial for achieving a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: Hartenstein has previously recorded a double-double against the Oklahoma City Thunder, posting 12 rebounds in their last matchup, indicating he can exploit favorable matchups against their frontcourt.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 233.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game which would lead to more possessions, increasing the chances for Hartenstein to accumulate both points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Recently, Hartenstein has increased his performance, averaging 10 rebounds and 7.6 points over the last five games, trending upwards toward achieving double figures in both categories.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nuggets are facing the top team in the league, and with their current standing, Hartenstein will likely see increased minutes to match the Thunder's intensity, especially after their streaky recent performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein's recent averages of 7.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game indicate he is below the threshold needed for a double-double, which requires at least 10 points and 10 rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that has a strong overall record and defensive efficiency, Hartenstein may struggle to generate sufficient points and boards against their robust frontline.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Denver Nuggets being underdogs, it's plausible that they will fall behind significantly, leading to reduced playing time for Hartenstein as the team likely turns to more perimeter-oriented strategies to catch up.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Hartenstein has not reached double-digit points in four out of those games, showcasing a concerning trend of offensive underperformance as he only surpassed 10 points once.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are heavy favorites in this matchup, indicated by the large 8-point spread. This raises the risk of a blowout, which could result in Hartenstein receiving limited minutes if he is pulled early due to the game outcome.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, demonstrating his ability to contribute significantly in the rebounding category, which is crucial for achieving a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: Hartenstein has previously recorded a double-double against the Oklahoma City Thunder, posting 12 rebounds in their last matchup, indicating he can exploit favorable matchups against their frontcourt.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 233.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game which would lead to more possessions, increasing the chances for Hartenstein to accumulate both points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Recently, Hartenstein has increased his performance, averaging 10 rebounds and 7.6 points over the last five games, trending upwards toward achieving double figures in both categories.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nuggets are facing the top team in the league, and with their current standing, Hartenstein will likely see increased minutes to match the Thunder's intensity, especially after their streaky recent performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
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