Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Cameron Johnson Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+115↑8%|-10
player assists
Cameron Johnson Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+115↑8%|-10
player assists
29.30
Composite Score
+6.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
27.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder, there's a strong case for the Under on Cameron Johnson's assists despite a close Net EV of 0.06. The Thunder's effective defensive schemes and Johnson's recent struggles against tougher defenses suggest that he may not consistently hit the 1.5 assists mark, particularly in a likely blowout scenario. Given these trends and the narrative that favors decreased playing time due to the spread, this bet lacks sufficient value and consistency in expectations.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cameron Johnson has averaged only 2.2 assists in his last five games, indicating he is performing slightly above the threshold of 1.5 but not consistently so, suggesting he's unlikely to exceed this mark again.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently a dominant team with effective defensive schemes, which could limit the number of assists generated by Johnson as the Thunder's defensive presence usually disrupts opponent ball movement.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the 8-point spread favoring Oklahoma City, the game may lean towards a blowout scenario, which typically results in reduced playing time for key players like Johnson, limiting his opportunities to tally assists.
- →TREND: Johnson's recent performances against stronger defenses have shown a marked decrease in assist totals compared to games with lesser opponents. This trend suggests he struggles to exceed his averages when facing tougher competition.
- →SITUATIONAL: Johnson's team is experiencing a competitive stretch against top-tier teams, and with a fast-paced game expected, it's possible that he'll be more focused on scoring rather than facilitating plays, further indicating that he might not hit the assist mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: data not available, data not available
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cameron Johnson has averaged 2.2 assists per game over his last five games, comfortably exceeding the threshold of 1.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder's fast-paced style of play typically results in higher assist opportunities for players, giving Johnson a favorable environment to exceed his assist totals.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 233.5 for this game, it is expected to be high-scoring, creating more chances for Johnson to distribute the ball effectively and rack up assists.
- →TREND: Johnson has shown consistent performance in recent games, recording 2 or more assists in three out of his last five games, indicating he is trending upwards in this stat.
- →SITUATIONAL: Cameron Johnson has been playing significant minutes recently, averaging 37.2 minutes per game, which suggests he will have ample opportunities to assist, especially in a competitive matchup against the Thunder.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cameron Johnson has averaged only 2.2 assists in his last five games, indicating he is performing slightly above the threshold of 1.5 but not consistently so, suggesting he's unlikely to exceed this mark again.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently a dominant team with effective defensive schemes, which could limit the number of assists generated by Johnson as the Thunder's defensive presence usually disrupts opponent ball movement.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the 8-point spread favoring Oklahoma City, the game may lean towards a blowout scenario, which typically results in reduced playing time for key players like Johnson, limiting his opportunities to tally assists.
- →TREND: Johnson's recent performances against stronger defenses have shown a marked decrease in assist totals compared to games with lesser opponents. This trend suggests he struggles to exceed his averages when facing tougher competition.
- →SITUATIONAL: Johnson's team is experiencing a competitive stretch against top-tier teams, and with a fast-paced game expected, it's possible that he'll be more focused on scoring rather than facilitating plays, further indicating that he might not hit the assist mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: data not available, data not available
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