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Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+121↓4%|+5

player assists

Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+121↓4%|+5

player assists

29.90

Composite Score

+7.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

29.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, the expected competitive nature of the game, combined with Holmgren's current assist average of 1.0 and the Nuggets' strong defense, suggests he'll struggle to surpass 1.5 assists. Additionally, the Thunder's potential blowout could lead to Holmgren playing fewer minutes, reinforcing the Under on his assists. The Net EV of 0.07 supports that the bookmaker has slightly undervalued this wager, giving us a reason to lean towards betting on the Under.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Chet Holmgren's last 5 games show an average of only 1.0 assists per game, significantly below the 1.5 assists threshold which suggests he will struggle to reach it.
→MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets rank among the top defensive teams, which may limit Holmgren's passing opportunities, as his assists could be stifled by their defensive schemes.
→NARRATIVE: With the Thunder favored by 8 points, this suggests a potential for a blowout, which could lead to Holmgren playing fewer minutes in garbage time, directly impacting his assist total.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Holmgren has only surpassed 1.5 assists in one game, demonstrating a trend of underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: Holmgren's current role may be less focused on playmaking due to the presence of other ball handlers in the lineup, coupled with the Thunder’s previous loss which could lead to adjustments that limit his assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Chet Holmgren is averaging 2.0 assists per game this season, which already exceeds the 1.5 assist threshold, indicating he has the capability to surpass this mark consistently.
→MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored by 8.0 points against the Denver Nuggets, suggesting a potential for a high-scoring game, which usually leads to increased opportunities for assists due to more offensive possessions.
→NARRATIVE: The combination of a high game total of 233.5 indicates a fast pace, allowing for more offensive plays where Holmgren, as a player who can both score and facilitate, is likely to contribute additional assists.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Holmgren has been averaging 1.0 assists, but with the team's structure emphasizing ball movement, it's reasonable to expect an increase in his assist numbers against the Nuggets.
→SITUATIONAL: The Thunder's current one-game losing streak may motivate players like Holmgren to step up their gameplay, and given they are playing at home, this setting can further enhance his performance and assist numbers.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Chet Holmgren's last 5 games show an average of only 1.0 assists per game, significantly below the 1.5 assists threshold which suggests he will struggle to reach it.
→MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets rank among the top defensive teams, which may limit Holmgren's passing opportunities, as his assists could be stifled by their defensive schemes.
→NARRATIVE: With the Thunder favored by 8 points, this suggests a potential for a blowout, which could lead to Holmgren playing fewer minutes in garbage time, directly impacting his assist total.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Holmgren has only surpassed 1.5 assists in one game, demonstrating a trend of underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: Holmgren's current role may be less focused on playmaking due to the presence of other ball handlers in the lineup, coupled with the Thunder’s previous loss which could lead to adjustments that limit his assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2