Back to Louisville Cardinals @ North Carolina Tar Heels

J'Vonne Hadley Over 17.5 points rebounds

🎯 Core Value Bet

-125↑23%|-23

player points rebounds

J'Vonne Hadley Over 17.5 points rebounds

🎯 Core Value Bet

-125↑23%|-23

player points rebounds

48.00

Composite Score

+3.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

24.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The game is expected to be high-paced due to the competitive nature suggested by the close point spread of +3.5 and the total at 162.5, leading to more possessions and scoring opportunities. Despite Hadley's recent struggles, the matchup against a North Carolina team that allows scoring and rebounding makes this line favorable for him to exceed 17.5 combined points and rebounds. The Net EV of 0.04 suggests a slight underpricing by the bookmakers, which gives just enough value to lean towards this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: J'Vonne Hadley has been an impactful player for the Louisville Cardinals, consistently contributing to scoring and rebounding, with an overall season average that suggests he can reach or exceed the 17.5 mark for points and rebounds combined.
→MATCHUP: The North Carolina Tar Heels allow a relatively high number of rebounds and scoring opportunities for their opponents, especially considering their recent matchups with teams that have strong rebounding and scoring efficiency.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be competitive (spread at +3.5) and a high total of 162.5, this indicates a high-paced game which usually results in more possessions, giving Hadley increased opportunities to compile points and boards.
→TREND: Hadley has shown improvement in his recent games, helping his team maintain a winning streak, which could boost his confidence and performance going into this closely contested matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The game is crucial for both teams as they look to improve their standings, possibly leading to more minutes for Hadley, especially if the game remains close, allowing him to effectively surpass the 17.5 threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: J'Vonne Hadley has struggled to reach double digits in points and rebounds in recent matchups, averaging only 12 points and 5 rebounds over the last five games, making it unlikely he can exceed 17.5 combined.
→MATCHUP: The North Carolina Tar Heels feature a strong interior defense, which could limit Hadley's scoring opportunities and rebounding due to their size and physicality in the paint.
→NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be competitive with a close spread of 3.5, Hadley may face more defensive pressure, affecting his ability to reach the threshold of 17.5 points and rebounds.
→TREND: Hadley’s recent performance illustrates a downward trend, as he has not reached 17.5 points and rebounds in three of his last five games, highlighting a lack of consistent production.
→SITUATIONAL: Traveling for an away game against a tough opponent like North Carolina, combined with previous away struggles (3-5 record), adds pressure that could hinder Hadley’s performance.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jvonne-hadley.html, https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/246/louisville-cardinals, https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/234/north-carolina-tar-heels

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: J'Vonne Hadley has been an impactful player for the Louisville Cardinals, consistently contributing to scoring and rebounding, with an overall season average that suggests he can reach or exceed the 17.5 mark for points and rebounds combined.
→MATCHUP: The North Carolina Tar Heels allow a relatively high number of rebounds and scoring opportunities for their opponents, especially considering their recent matchups with teams that have strong rebounding and scoring efficiency.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be competitive (spread at +3.5) and a high total of 162.5, this indicates a high-paced game which usually results in more possessions, giving Hadley increased opportunities to compile points and boards.
→TREND: Hadley has shown improvement in his recent games, helping his team maintain a winning streak, which could boost his confidence and performance going into this closely contested matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The game is crucial for both teams as they look to improve their standings, possibly leading to more minutes for Hadley, especially if the game remains close, allowing him to effectively surpass the 17.5 threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

-113+4.2% EV

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Mikel Brown Jr. Under 27.5 points rebounds💤

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Luka Bogavac Under 15.5 points rebounds💤

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Seth Trimble Over 17.5 points rebounds💤

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