Back to Louisville Cardinals @ North Carolina Tar Heels

Luka Bogavac Under 15.5 points rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

-106↑2%|-2

player points rebounds

Luka Bogavac Under 15.5 points rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

-106↑2%|-2

player points rebounds

34.50

Composite Score

+0.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

2.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Luka Bogavac Under 15.5 points and rebounds is not compelling enough given the analysis. The potential close contest and increased minutes could provide opportunities for Bogavac to exceed the threshold despite his struggles. The Net EV of 0.00 suggests that the market has accurately priced this bet, making it wise to avoid betting on it.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 45%

Evidence

→STATS: Luka Bogavac, as a guard for North Carolina, may struggle to accumulate points and rebounds when considering that guards typically have lower rebounding numbers compared to forwards or centers.
→MATCHUP: The Louisville Cardinals have a solid frontcourt defensive presence, suggesting that Bogavac might find it difficult to penetrate or score effectively in the paint, which could limit both his scoring and rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high-total game projection of 162.5, while offense may be expected, the high pace can often lead to individual players losing opportunities to accumulate stats as possessions can lead to quick shots rather than offensive rebounds.
→TREND: Current performance indicators suggest that Bogavac has been struggling to hit double-digit scoring lately, indicating an underperformance trend that makes exceeding 15.5 total points and rebounds less likely.
→SITUATIONAL: The Tar Heels are on a winning streak with a strong home record of 15-0, and with the spread crossing a key number, it may indicate a close game leading to less opportunity for Bogavac to accumulate stats late in the game as starters may be pulled for defensive setups.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.ncaab.com, https://www.espn.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Luka Bogavac is averaging 8.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game this season, which totals 13.4 points/rebounds combined, putting him close to the threshold but with an upward trend in recent performance.
→MATCHUP: North Carolina has struggled defensively against strong offensive teams, which could allow Bogavac to exploit mismatches and increase his scoring and rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: The high game total of 162.5 suggests a fast-paced game, generating more possessions and opportunities for Bogavac to accumulate points and rebounds.
→TREND: In the last five games, Bogavac has shown increased involvement in the offense, with a noticeable uptick in his usage rate, which can lead to exceeding the combined threshold of 15.5 points and rebounds.
→SITUATIONAL: The game context shows both teams are competitive in the ACC, where every point matters. The close spread of +3.5 indicates a potentially tightly contested game, leading to Bogavac playing extended minutes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 45%

Evidence

→STATS: Luka Bogavac, as a guard for North Carolina, may struggle to accumulate points and rebounds when considering that guards typically have lower rebounding numbers compared to forwards or centers.
→MATCHUP: The Louisville Cardinals have a solid frontcourt defensive presence, suggesting that Bogavac might find it difficult to penetrate or score effectively in the paint, which could limit both his scoring and rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high-total game projection of 162.5, while offense may be expected, the high pace can often lead to individual players losing opportunities to accumulate stats as possessions can lead to quick shots rather than offensive rebounds.
→TREND: Current performance indicators suggest that Bogavac has been struggling to hit double-digit scoring lately, indicating an underperformance trend that makes exceeding 15.5 total points and rebounds less likely.
→SITUATIONAL: The Tar Heels are on a winning streak with a strong home record of 15-0, and with the spread crossing a key number, it may indicate a close game leading to less opportunity for Bogavac to accumulate stats late in the game as starters may be pulled for defensive setups.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.ncaab.com, https://www.espn.com

-113+4.2% EV

J'Vonne Hadley Over 17.5 points rebounds🎯

-125+3.8% EV

Henri Veesaar Over 27.5 points rebounds💤

-108+0.9% EV

Mikel Brown Jr. Under 27.5 points rebounds💤

-115+0.8% EV

Seth Trimble Over 17.5 points rebounds💤

-113-0.5% EV