Louisville has three starters shooting 38-41% from three (Conwell 38%, McKneely 41.7%, Wooley 39.4%), but road teams typically shoot 3-4% below season norms in hostile crowds. If Louisville's shooters regress to 35-38% range due to Dean Dome pressure, their offensive ceiling drops significantly. The over 163.5 requires sustained elite three-point shooting under adverse conditions—unlikely.

Wilson averages 19.8 PPG at 57.8% FG; Louisville's frontcourt has no defender of comparable interior dominance. In a controlled half-court environment where UNC prioritizes Wilson, expect him to see 16+ touches and exceed 18.5 PPG prop. His interior efficiency and rebounding control game pace toward UNC's advantage.

UNC is 15-0 at home; Louisville is 3-5 away from home. This 18-game sample split (perfect vs disastrous) historically compounds in final 6 minutes of close games. Road teams facing hostile environments and trailing typically make forced shot choices; home teams execute confidently. This edge becomes decisive if game tightens in Q4.

UNC's strategy revolves around Wilson's post-ups (19.8 PPG at 57.8% FG), which compress possessions and extend half-court sequences. Louisville's guard-heavy system requires pace. If UNC successfully controls pace through Wilson, total drops toward 140-161 range rather than 163+ range. Neither team's bench generates efficient perimeter scoring to offset volume.