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Brandon Williams Under 18.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-103— stable

player points

Brandon Williams Under 18.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-103— stable

player points

32.10

Composite Score

+9.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

35.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Brandon Williams scoring under 18.5 points aligns with expectations of a low-scoring game and the Grizzlies’ struggles, supported by historical performance against the Mavericks and recent averages. Despite the moderate Net EV (0.09), the potential for the Grizzlies' offensive woes and the strong Mavericks defense indicates that betting on Williams to exceed that line is unlikely, making this a pass rather than a bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Brandon Williams has averaged only 9.4 points per game over his last five games, which is well below the 18.5-point threshold he is expected to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have shown strong defensive capabilities, limiting opposing guards effectively, making it challenging for Williams to score significantly.
→NARRATIVE: Given the current trends of the Memphis Grizzlies losing three straight games, it's likely they will struggle to establish offensive momentum, impacting Williams' scoring opportunities.
→TREND: In previous matchups against the Mavericks, Williams' point totals have been well below his average, with his highest score falling far short of 18.5 points.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Grizzlies on a losing streak and facing a tough opponent like the Mavericks, there is a strong risk of a potential blowout which could limit Williams' minutes and scoring potential.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Brandon Williams has recently averaged 9.4 points over the last 5 games while playing approximately 20 minutes per game, indicating a potential increase in scoring if he sees more playing time against the Mavericks' defense.
→MATCHUP: The Mavericks have shown vulnerability in their perimeter defense, which could allow Williams to capitalize on his 3-point shooting ability (35.0% over the last 5 games).
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 set for the game, the expectation for a high-scoring affair suggests that Williams may have more opportunities for shot attempts, increasing his chances to exceed the 18.5 points threshold.
→TREND: In his last game against the Mavericks, Williams scored highly (combining meaningful minutes with a +/- of +18), demonstrating that he can perform effectively in this matchup; he played 26 minutes in that game.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the Grizzlies' recent struggles (losing streak of three games), they will likely depend heavily on their key scorers, including Williams, which could see him receiving additional offensive responsibilities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Brandon Williams has averaged only 9.4 points per game over his last five games, which is well below the 18.5-point threshold he is expected to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have shown strong defensive capabilities, limiting opposing guards effectively, making it challenging for Williams to score significantly.
→NARRATIVE: Given the current trends of the Memphis Grizzlies losing three straight games, it's likely they will struggle to establish offensive momentum, impacting Williams' scoring opportunities.
→TREND: In previous matchups against the Mavericks, Williams' point totals have been well below his average, with his highest score falling far short of 18.5 points.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Grizzlies on a losing streak and facing a tough opponent like the Mavericks, there is a strong risk of a potential blowout which could limit Williams' minutes and scoring potential.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats