Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Max Christie Under 15.5 points
💤 Noise Bet
-103— stable
player points
Max Christie Under 15.5 points
💤 Noise Bet
-103— stable
player points
37.30
Composite Score
+9.9%
Net EV
65.00
Narrative Fit
37.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the strong defensive capabilities of the Memphis Grizzlies coupled with Max Christie's struggles in scoring, it is expected that Christie will not see the volume of shots necessary to exceed 15.5 points. His recent performances and the competitive nature of this matchup suggest he may fall short of this line. The positive Net EV of 0.10 reflects the slight underpricing by the bookmakers based on these trends and matchups, making it a valuable opportunity despite not being overwhelmingly strong.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie's recent performance shows he only averages 8.0 points per game over his last 5 games, which is far below the threshold of 15.5 points.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a strong defensive unit, limiting numerous opposing guards’ scoring opportunities; this trend is expected to continue against Christie.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game is likely to be competitive with a close point spread (Dallas Mavericks -4.0), it's probable that Christie won't receive the volume of shots needed to exceed 15.5 points.
- →TREND: In his past five meetings against the Dallas Mavericks, Christie has not reached double digits in scoring; his highest was 9 points, indicating a consistent struggle in that matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams having poor records and fighting for playoff positioning, it's likely that rotations will tighten, reducing Christie's minutes and opportunities to score even further.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie has recently averaged 8.0 points per game over his last five games, but he has shown a notable improvement in field goal percentage at 50.9%, suggesting he can score efficiently when given the opportunity.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have been struggling defensively, as indicated by their last three losses. This could provide Christie with more scoring opportunities against a team yielding high points.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 238.5 in the game, both teams are expected to engage in a high-scoring affair, which supports the idea that Christie will have more chances to exceed 15.5 points.
- →TREND: Despite not hitting double-digit points recently, the overall offensive pace of both teams could allow Christie to break out of his scoring slump given the high game total.
- →SITUATIONAL: Christie is likely to see extended minutes in a high-scoring game, which could potentially push his total minutes up to 30+, giving him the opportunity to score more and possibly exceed 15.5 points.
Thesis: moderate
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie's recent performance shows he only averages 8.0 points per game over his last 5 games, which is far below the threshold of 15.5 points.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a strong defensive unit, limiting numerous opposing guards’ scoring opportunities; this trend is expected to continue against Christie.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game is likely to be competitive with a close point spread (Dallas Mavericks -4.0), it's probable that Christie won't receive the volume of shots needed to exceed 15.5 points.
- →TREND: In his past five meetings against the Dallas Mavericks, Christie has not reached double digits in scoring; his highest was 9 points, indicating a consistent struggle in that matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams having poor records and fighting for playoff positioning, it's likely that rotations will tighten, reducing Christie's minutes and opportunities to score even further.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available