Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford Under 0.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+135— stable
player assists
Daniel Gafford Under 0.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+135— stable
player assists
33.60
Composite Score
+9.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
39.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks, the expectation is that Daniel Gafford will continue to struggle with assist production, especially against Memphis's strong interior defense and his limited minutes on the floor. While there's some evidence promoting the idea of increased scoring opportunities due to the high total of 238.5, Gafford’s recent performance trends and the nature of his role in this game suggest that he is unlikely to exceed 0.5 assists. The Net EV of 0.10 indicates a slight edge, but it is not strong enough to warrant a bet given the supported narrative against it.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's recent average of 0.4 assists over the last 5 games indicates he has struggled to reach even a single assist per game, making it highly unlikely he will exceed 0.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are known for their strong interior defense, which could limit Gafford's opportunities to create assists, as he may struggle to find open teammates in high-pressure situations.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 238.5, there may be a quicker pace, but with Dallas typically relying on their backcourt offense, Gafford's role in playmaking may be minimized, reducing his assist opportunities.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Gafford's assist performance has consistently underwhelmed, further illustrated by him recording 0 assists in 2 of these games, showcasing a clear trend of underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford's average of 18.8 minutes played in recent games indicates limited court time, which restricts his chance to rack up assists, particularly when matched against a team that can create scoring opportunities in other areas.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford is averaging 1.4 assists per game this season, which is well above the 0.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled defensively, allowing for increased assist opportunities for opposing forwards, which plays into Gafford's ability to distribute the ball.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the game's total is set at 238.5, a high-scoring affair is expected, which typically leads to more possessions and opportunities for assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Gafford had a game against the Mavericks where he recorded 0 assists, but overall he has shown flashes of playmaking with increased minutes during the last few matchups.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams underperforming and the pressure of playoff positioning, Gafford could see an uptick in minutes and usage in an effort to turn the season around, enhancing his chances to exceed 0.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's recent average of 0.4 assists over the last 5 games indicates he has struggled to reach even a single assist per game, making it highly unlikely he will exceed 0.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are known for their strong interior defense, which could limit Gafford's opportunities to create assists, as he may struggle to find open teammates in high-pressure situations.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 238.5, there may be a quicker pace, but with Dallas typically relying on their backcourt offense, Gafford's role in playmaking may be minimized, reducing his assist opportunities.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Gafford's assist performance has consistently underwhelmed, further illustrated by him recording 0 assists in 2 of these games, showcasing a clear trend of underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford's average of 18.8 minutes played in recent games indicates limited court time, which restricts his chance to rack up assists, particularly when matched against a team that can create scoring opportunities in other areas.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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