Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
G.G. Jackson Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+120— stable
player assists
G.G. Jackson Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+120— stable
player assists
30.60
Composite Score
+8.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
30.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, G.G. Jackson is positioned to struggle in the assist category due to the strong Dallas Mavericks defense, which limits playmaking opportunities. With an average of just 1.0 assists in recent games and limited court time at 21.8 minutes per game, Jackson is unlikely to exceed the 1.5 assists mark. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates that the market has mispriced this bet, making it a favorable opportunity given the statistical evidence supporting the Under.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: G.G. Jackson's assists per game average is just 1.0, and he has only exceeded 1.5 assists in one of the last five games, indicating he consistently struggles to reach this threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a solid defense, which could limit Jackson's opportunities to assist, particularly against their strong perimeter players, making it harder for him to connect assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With the expected total at 238.5, while it suggests a potentially high-scoring game, it doesn't necessarily mean Jackson will have the ball in his hands more, as effective ball distribution may rely on other playmakers, diminishing his assist chances.
- →TREND: In the last five games, G.G. Jackson has averaged only 1.0 assists, showing he has not consistently performed at a level that would support exceeding the 1.5 assists mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that G.G. Jackson has been averaging just 21.8 minutes per game recently, he may not have enough court time to generate the assists needed to exceed this threshold, especially in a potentially evenly matched game where he may be limited.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: G.G. Jackson's assists average has recently been consistent at 1.0 assists per game, but his playing time has increased to 21.8 minutes per game over the last five games, indicating potential for more opportunities to distribute the ball.
- →MATCHUP: The high game total of 238.5 suggests a fast-paced game which typically leads to more possessions, increasing the likelihood of Jackson finding teammates for assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Memphis Grizzlies struggling with a three-game losing streak, they are likely to rely more on their younger players like G.G. Jackson, increasing his role and facilitating duties during the game.
- →TREND: Jackson has recently demonstrated an upward trend in scoring, averaging 8.4 points per game in his last five outings, which could suggest a greater involvement in offensive plays and possibly lead to more assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the absence of significant injuries on both teams, Jackson is expected to have a full role in this contest, as both teams are looking to improve their standings with playoff contention slipping away. This context may promote Jackson's aggressive playstyle, contributing to higher assist numbers.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available, data not available
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: G.G. Jackson's assists per game average is just 1.0, and he has only exceeded 1.5 assists in one of the last five games, indicating he consistently struggles to reach this threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a solid defense, which could limit Jackson's opportunities to assist, particularly against their strong perimeter players, making it harder for him to connect assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With the expected total at 238.5, while it suggests a potentially high-scoring game, it doesn't necessarily mean Jackson will have the ball in his hands more, as effective ball distribution may rely on other playmakers, diminishing his assist chances.
- →TREND: In the last five games, G.G. Jackson has averaged only 1.0 assists, showing he has not consistently performed at a level that would support exceeding the 1.5 assists mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that G.G. Jackson has been averaging just 21.8 minutes per game recently, he may not have enough court time to generate the assists needed to exceed this threshold, especially in a potentially evenly matched game where he may be limited.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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