Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Max Christie Over 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+118— stable
player threes
Max Christie Over 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+118— stable
player threes
25.60
Composite Score
+4.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
16.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a high-scoring game expected with a total set at 238.5, Max Christie has shown a strong recent 3-point shooting percentage of 60.8%, making him likely to have opportunities to exceed 2.5 threes against a Mavericks defense that allows plenty of perimeter shots. Although his recent performance metrics indicate he's on the lower end for average 3-pointers made, the game's pace and urgency for both teams to win could lead to increased shot attempts, supporting the lean towards this bet. The Net EV of 0.04 gives a slight edge to the wager, suggesting the market may be undervaluing his chances in this favorable matchup.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie has a recent 3P percentage of 60.8% over the last 5 games, indicating a strong ability to hit three-pointers, which is necessary to exceed the threshold of 2.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have shown a tendency to give up three-pointers, as they have a fast-paced style of play which generally leads to higher scoring games, allowing players like Christie to take more shots from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 238.5, this indicates a high-scoring affair is expected, creating more opportunities for Christie to find open looks and succeed in exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Christie is averaging 2.6 field goals made per game, with an improved shooting efficiency, allowing for the possibility of an increased volume of 3-point shots to go along with his higher shooting percentage.
- →SITUATIONAL: Despite the game being a battle between two lower-seeded teams, both the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks are desperate for wins following their recent losing streaks, which could lead to a faster-paced game with increased shot attempts for Christie.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN, NBA.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie has averaged 2.6 FG made per game in his last 5 games, indicating he typically doesn't shoot enough 3-pointers to consistently reach 3 made threes, especially considering his shooting pattern.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies rank as a strong defensive team against perimeter shooting, which may limit Christie’s attempts from beyond the arc, decreasing his chances of exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the game total is set high at 238.5, this typically means defenses will tighten; in a high-scoring context, shooting percentage can drop, working against Christie’s likelihood to hit more 3-pointers.
- →TREND: In Christie's last game against the Dallas Mavericks, he played 23 minutes and recorded no three-pointers, suggesting he may struggle against this specific matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Max Christie’s average minutes played in recent games is only 25.2, which is on the lower end for a player trying to exceed 2.5 threes in a high-paced game, potentially limiting his opportunities to shoot from deep.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Max Christie has a recent 3P percentage of 60.8% over the last 5 games, indicating a strong ability to hit three-pointers, which is necessary to exceed the threshold of 2.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have shown a tendency to give up three-pointers, as they have a fast-paced style of play which generally leads to higher scoring games, allowing players like Christie to take more shots from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 238.5, this indicates a high-scoring affair is expected, creating more opportunities for Christie to find open looks and succeed in exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Christie is averaging 2.6 field goals made per game, with an improved shooting efficiency, allowing for the possibility of an increased volume of 3-point shots to go along with his higher shooting percentage.
- →SITUATIONAL: Despite the game being a battle between two lower-seeded teams, both the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks are desperate for wins following their recent losing streaks, which could lead to a faster-paced game with increased shot attempts for Christie.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN, NBA.com
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