Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Naji Marshall Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+185— stable
player threes
Naji Marshall Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+185— stable
player threes
37.00
Composite Score
+12.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
49.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the current game context between the Grizzlies and Mavericks, the evidence leans more toward Naji Marshall hitting at least one three-pointer, suggesting that the +185 odds on the Under may not be favorable. Despite his low shooting percentage, the Mavericks' defensive strategy allows for a greater number of three-point attempts, and the game pace is expected to be high, which contradicts the reasoning for unders. The Net EV of 0.12, while slightly positive, doesn't provide enough confidence to warrant a bet in favor of the Under, based on the compelling narrative of increased scoring opportunities.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Naji Marshall has a 3-point shooting percentage of only 30.0% over the last five games, which indicates difficulty in consistently making three-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a defensive strategy that prioritizes contesting shots from the perimeter, making it harder for players like Marshall to score threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 4.0, the game may be closely contested, which often leads to higher intensity defense and less open shots from beyond the arc, hampering Marshall's ability to exceed 0.5 threes.
- →TREND: In their last matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, Marshall failed to make any three-pointers, suggesting a pattern of ineffective perimeter shooting against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game recently marks a back-to-back situation for both teams, which could lead to fatigue and thus impact Marshall's effectiveness in taking and making three-point shots.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Naji Marshall has averaged 6.4 field goals made per game over his last five games, with a 3-point shooting percentage of 30.0%, which translates to an expectation of over 0.5 made threes based on his shooting volume.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are allowing a higher number of three-point attempts due to their defensive strategy, creating favorable conditions for Marshall to exceed 0.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With the high game total of 238.5, the pace of play will likely be fast, increasing the number of possessions and shots taken, which benefits Marshall's chances of hitting at least one three.
- →TREND: Naji Marshall's recent form has shown improvement, with an increase in minutes to an average of 32.2 over the last five games, which correlates with an uptick in scoring opportunities, including three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams being on a losing streak, expect a competitive game that keeps starters engaged for extended minutes, ultimately increasing the likelihood of Marshall taking and making more shots from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Naji Marshall has a 3-point shooting percentage of only 30.0% over the last five games, which indicates difficulty in consistently making three-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a defensive strategy that prioritizes contesting shots from the perimeter, making it harder for players like Marshall to score threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 4.0, the game may be closely contested, which often leads to higher intensity defense and less open shots from beyond the arc, hampering Marshall's ability to exceed 0.5 threes.
- →TREND: In their last matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, Marshall failed to make any three-pointers, suggesting a pattern of ineffective perimeter shooting against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game recently marks a back-to-back situation for both teams, which could lead to fatigue and thus impact Marshall's effectiveness in taking and making three-point shots.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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