Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Morez Johnson Jr. Under 7.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+105↑5%|-5
player rebounds
Morez Johnson Jr. Under 7.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+105↑5%|-5
player rebounds
27.90
Composite Score
+5.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
23.30
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Considering the odds and the final Net EV of 0.05, the edge here is minimal, making it a less appealing wager. The narrative indicates a strong rebounding performance could be expected due to the game's high-scoring forecast, but Johnson's history and matchup against Illinois' capable frontcourt suggest that opportunities might be limited. It's risky to bet on this Under, especially given that both agents present compelling evidence that could easily override the slight positive EV.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Morez Johnson Jr. has not consistently pulled down high rebound numbers in prior games, indicating an inability to average 7.5 rebounds. Historical data shows he often fluctuates around 5-6 rebounds, making reaching 8 a challenge.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are known for their strong rebounding capabilities, particularly with their size in the frontcourt. This could hinder Johnson's opportunities to grab rebounds, especially against bigger opponents who may box him out effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game total of 158.5, the focus may shift to scoring rather than rebounding, reducing the likelihood of Johnson securing rebounds as more possessions lead to more shot attempts.
- →TREND: In the last few games, Johnson has shown a decline in rebounding, averaging less than his usual outputs against teams with comparable strengths, suggesting a current trend of underperformance in this area.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 suggests a potentially tightly contested game, which may lead to fewer available rebound opportunities for Johnson and limit his playing time if he doesn't perform well early on in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Morez Johnson Jr. has shown strong rebounding capabilities, and with a high total of 158.5 for the game, there will be plenty of opportunities for rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's frontcourt may struggle against a strong Michigan Wolverines team, allowing Johnson to capitalize on his rebounding opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of +1.5, the game is likely to be competitive, encouraging both teams' primary rebounders, like Johnson, to stay on the court longer for crucial possessions.
- →TREND: The Michigan Wolverines are currently on a winning streak, likely leading to heightened performance from all players, including Johnson, who could become even more involved in securing boards.
- →SITUATIONAL: Playing away, Johnson's performance might be boosted by the importance of a Big Ten matchup against a highly ranked opponent like Illinois, especially with both teams eager to solidify their standing in the conference.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Morez Johnson Jr. has not consistently pulled down high rebound numbers in prior games, indicating an inability to average 7.5 rebounds. Historical data shows he often fluctuates around 5-6 rebounds, making reaching 8 a challenge.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are known for their strong rebounding capabilities, particularly with their size in the frontcourt. This could hinder Johnson's opportunities to grab rebounds, especially against bigger opponents who may box him out effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game total of 158.5, the focus may shift to scoring rather than rebounding, reducing the likelihood of Johnson securing rebounds as more possessions lead to more shot attempts.
- →TREND: In the last few games, Johnson has shown a decline in rebounding, averaging less than his usual outputs against teams with comparable strengths, suggesting a current trend of underperformance in this area.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 suggests a potentially tightly contested game, which may lead to fewer available rebound opportunities for Johnson and limit his playing time if he doesn't perform well early on in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available