Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kevin Durant Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2500↓136%|+1440
player threes alternate
Kevin Durant Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2500↓136%|+1440
player threes alternate
73.40
Composite Score
+46.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
72.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets is likely to unfold in a high-scoring manner, as indicated by the Rockets' desire to bounce back from a loss and the fact they're heavy favorites at -13.5, suggesting they will play aggressively. Kevin Durant is not only shooting effectively with a high percentage (55.0%) but also has a favorable matchup against a Jazz defense that allows ample three-point attempts, providing him with the opportunities needed to exceed 6.5 threes. The Net EV of 0.46 supports this wager, showing that the market has potentially underestimated Durant's scoring capabilities in the context of this matchup.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kevin Durant has averaged 3.0 three-pointers made over his last 5 games, exceeding the threshold of 2.5 threes consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's defense allows opponents a significant number of three-point attempts, which can favor Durant's shooting opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it’s likely the game will stay competitive enough for Durant to play extended minutes and shoot effectively.
- →TREND: Durant's 3P percentage of 55.0% over the last five games indicates he is not only shooting but making a high volume of threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and will look to bounce back against a struggling Jazz team, likely leading to a higher-scoring game and increased shooting opportunities for Durant.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kevin Durant has averaged 3.0 three-pointers made in his last 5 games, but this number can be misleading as it fluctuates game-to-game and is influenced by the overall game context and opponent's defense.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have been effective at contesting perimeter shots, ranking in the top tier for three-point defense this season, which poses a challenge for Durant to exceed the 2.5 mark.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's expected blowout (Houston favored by -13.5) might result in limited playing time for Durant if the score margin widens, reducing his opportunities to attempt threes.
- →TREND: Durant's recent form shows some volatility in his three-point shooting; despite a high percentage over the last five games, there have been instances where he has only taken 3-5 attempts in lower usage games.
- →SITUATIONAL: With a high overall game total (228.5), there is potential for the game to focus more on inside scoring and less on three-point shooting, which could limit Durant’s chances to hit his mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kevin Durant has averaged 3.0 three-pointers made over his last 5 games, exceeding the threshold of 2.5 threes consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's defense allows opponents a significant number of three-point attempts, which can favor Durant's shooting opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it’s likely the game will stay competitive enough for Durant to play extended minutes and shoot effectively.
- →TREND: Durant's 3P percentage of 55.0% over the last five games indicates he is not only shooting but making a high volume of threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and will look to bounce back against a struggling Jazz team, likely leading to a higher-scoring game and increased shooting opportunities for Durant.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available