Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey Over 29.5 points rebounds assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+537↓218%|+991
player points rebounds assists alternate
Ace Bailey Over 29.5 points rebounds assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+537↓218%|+991
player points rebounds assists alternate
63.00
Composite Score
+30.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In the expected high-scoring matchup between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, Ace Bailey will have ample opportunities to exceed the combined total of 14.5 points, rebounds, and assists. The weak defensive performance the Jazz have shown, alongside Bailey's consistent playing time averaging around 30 minutes, supports the idea that he can capitalize on the pacing of the game. The Net EV of 0.31 indicates that the market may indeed be underestimating Bailey's combined stats given the projected game dynamics.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Ace Bailey has averaged 9.2 points, 1.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game, totaling approximately 13.6 in points, rebounds, and assists, which is very close to the 14.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz currently hold a record of 18-39, suggesting they may struggle defensively, which could allow Bailey to capitalize and exceed the threshold in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With Houston favored by -13.5, a high-scoring game is expected, which can lead to increased opportunities for Bailey to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists, potentially pushing him over the 14.5 mark.
- →TREND: Bailey's playing time has been relatively consistent, averaging around 30 minutes over his last few games, allowing him ample opportunity to contribute to his points, rebounds, and assists totals.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total is set at 228.5, indicating a high pace that benefits all players, which can create more scoring opportunities for Bailey and support exceeding 14.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: In his last five games, Ace Bailey is averaging only 9.2 points per game, significantly below the 14.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently ranked as a top defensive team, which could limit Bailey's ability to score or contribute significant rebounds and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored heavily by 13.5 points, it's likely they will dominate the game, which could lead to Bailey playing fewer minutes than needed to accumulate the necessary stats.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Bailey has consistently underperformed his threshold, averaging only 2.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists, making it unlikely he will reach the combined total of 14.5.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the Jazz have struggles on the road, coupled with their low win percentage, they may not push the pace, which would further limit Bailey's offensive opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Game Data
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Ace Bailey has averaged 9.2 points, 1.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game, totaling approximately 13.6 in points, rebounds, and assists, which is very close to the 14.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz currently hold a record of 18-39, suggesting they may struggle defensively, which could allow Bailey to capitalize and exceed the threshold in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With Houston favored by -13.5, a high-scoring game is expected, which can lead to increased opportunities for Bailey to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists, potentially pushing him over the 14.5 mark.
- →TREND: Bailey's playing time has been relatively consistent, averaging around 30 minutes over his last few games, allowing him ample opportunity to contribute to his points, rebounds, and assists totals.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total is set at 228.5, indicating a high pace that benefits all players, which can create more scoring opportunities for Bailey and support exceeding 14.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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