Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey Over 39.5 points rebounds assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+3000↑14%|-500
player points rebounds assists alternate
Ace Bailey Over 39.5 points rebounds assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+3000↑14%|-500
player points rebounds assists alternate
62.20
Composite Score
+39.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script points toward a high-scoring matchup between the Jazz and Rockets, which creates opportunities for Ace Bailey to accumulate stats. With Bailey averaging over 13.6 in points, rebounds, and assists, the favorable game context and expectation for extended minutes due to a likely competitive pace suggest he could hit the Over on 39.5 effectively. The Net EV of 0.40 supports the notion that this bet is slightly underpriced based on the factors presented, making it a lean in favor of Bailey's performance.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey averages 9.2 points, 1.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game, totaling 13.6 in points, rebounds, and assists, which exceeds the 12.5 threshold he needs.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a significant spread of -13.5, indicating they are expected to dominate, which could lead to Bailey playing extended minutes due to pacing and opportunities to score.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 228.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair, which amplifies the potential for Bailey to accumulate points, assists, and rebounds as both teams clash.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Bailey has shown increased production when given over 30 minutes of playing time, typically exceeding 12.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists during these minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no injuries reported for the Utah Jazz, Bailey should maintain a stable role, and against the 34-21 Houston Rockets, he'll likely see significant usage due to game pressure and the need to keep pace with scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey averages only 9.2 points, 1.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game, which totals to approximately 13 points, rebounds, and assists combined, but this is below the 12.5 threshold when considering his performance variability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are strong defensively, currently holding their opponents to low scoring and limiting their impact. This poses a challenge for Bailey to hit the combined total of 12.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game script is likely to favor the Rockets dominating, potentially leading to blowout situations where Bailey may see reduced minutes in the second half, undermining his chance to accumulate stats.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Bailey has not exceeded 12.5 points, rebounds, and assists in any single game, indicating an underwhelming trend that suggests he is unlikely to suddenly perform above his normal output.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz have a poor record of 18-39 and are on a losing streak, indicating a lack of team momentum that could further hinder Bailey's individual performance and overall contributions during the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey averages 9.2 points, 1.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game, totaling 13.6 in points, rebounds, and assists, which exceeds the 12.5 threshold he needs.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a significant spread of -13.5, indicating they are expected to dominate, which could lead to Bailey playing extended minutes due to pacing and opportunities to score.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 228.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair, which amplifies the potential for Bailey to accumulate points, assists, and rebounds as both teams clash.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Bailey has shown increased production when given over 30 minutes of playing time, typically exceeding 12.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists during these minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no injuries reported for the Utah Jazz, Bailey should maintain a stable role, and against the 34-21 Houston Rockets, he'll likely see significant usage due to game pressure and the need to keep pace with scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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