Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Total Under 228.5
💤 Noise Bet
-105↓5%|+5
totals
Total Under 228.5
💤 Noise Bet
-105↓5%|+5
totals
31.10
Composite Score
+2.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
17.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The under on a total of 228.5 does not make sense given the narrative regarding both teams. Despite the Jazz's struggles, the Rockets have consistently scored over 120 points at home, and their high-paced offensive style suggests that they will push for an open game, likely resulting in a combined score that exceeds the total. The Net EV score of 0.02 reflects a marginal edge but does not provide enough confidence to pursue the Under given these offensive factors from the Rockets.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: The Utah Jazz have a low offensive rating and have scored poorly in recent games, which negatively impacts their ability to contribute to a high total score.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, although they are higher in the standings, may not play at a pace that maximizes scoring, especially against a struggling team like the Jazz, indicating a potential for fewer points.
- →NARRATIVE: With a 13.5 point spread, it suggests that the Rockets are expected to dominate, which often leads to the leading team not pushing the pace aggressively, resulting in a lower overall score.
- →TREND: The Jazz's recent performance has shown they struggle to score effectively, with a significant number of losses that indicate their inability to keep games close and high-scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz’s current two-game losing streak and poor overall record may affect their morale and offensive effectiveness, further reducing the likelihood of exceeding the total points line.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: The Houston Rockets have a strong offensive unit, as evidenced by their recent scoring output, averaging 120+ points in several previous home games, which contributes to a high total.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's defensive rating has been lackluster, especially against high-paced teams like the Rockets, leading to higher combined scores in similar matchups.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams having contrasting outcomes in their previous games, the Rockets are likely to push the pace at home, leading to a high-scoring affair due to their offensive style and Utah's struggles.
- →TREND: The total has consistently gone over 228.5 in the Rockets' recent matchups, especially when they've been favored by large spreads, suggesting a trend towards high-scoring games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game features a large spread of -13.5 for the Rockets, indicating an expectation of a blowout, which historically leads to a more open game with increased scoring opportunities late in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: The Utah Jazz have a low offensive rating and have scored poorly in recent games, which negatively impacts their ability to contribute to a high total score.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, although they are higher in the standings, may not play at a pace that maximizes scoring, especially against a struggling team like the Jazz, indicating a potential for fewer points.
- →NARRATIVE: With a 13.5 point spread, it suggests that the Rockets are expected to dominate, which often leads to the leading team not pushing the pace aggressively, resulting in a lower overall score.
- →TREND: The Jazz's recent performance has shown they struggle to score effectively, with a significant number of losses that indicate their inability to keep games close and high-scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz’s current two-game losing streak and poor overall record may affect their morale and offensive effectiveness, further reducing the likelihood of exceeding the total points line.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available