Utah Jazz +13.5

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110↓2%|+2

spreads

Utah Jazz +13.5

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110↓2%|+2

spreads

37.80

Composite Score

+5.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

35.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the context of this matchup, the Utah Jazz's ability to keep games competitive aligns with the expected game script against the Houston Rockets, who have struggled to cover large spreads, particularly after a loss. The cautious outlook of the Rockets following recent inconsistency points to them potentially winning, but failing to cover the substantial 13.5-point spread. The Net EV of 0.05 indicates a slight edge for this bet, suggesting that the market might underestimate the Jazz's resilience in this game.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: The Houston Rockets have a record of only 34-21 and are coming off a loss, which may affect their confidence and performance level as they attempt to cover a large spread.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz, despite their record, have shown the ability to keep games competitive, indicating they could challenge the Rockets effectively and prevent an extended blowout.
→NARRATIVE: The game script suggests the Rockets might not push to dominate given their recent inconsistent play, which could lead to a closer score than a significant margin of victory.
→TREND: The Rockets are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, indicating a struggle to consistently cover large spreads, particularly after a loss.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets' large spread of -13.5 is outside the critical 3-7 range, which traditionally indicates higher risk of a push or failure to cover, especially against teams like the Jazz that can unpredictably compete.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: The Houston Rockets have a solid record of 34-21, which translates to a winning percentage of 0.618, indicating a strong overall performance throughout the season.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are struggling, currently holding a record of 18-39, which places them at 5th in their division and significantly increases the Rockets' chance of victory in this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread set at -13.5 for the Rockets, the consensus high total of 228.5 suggests a high-scoring game, which typically favors the stronger team in terms of achieving a comfortable margin.
→TREND: The Rockets are coming off a loss, potentially motivating them to perform at a higher level to avoid consecutive defeats. Their previous win against the LA Clippers shows they can beat quality opponents.
→SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are on a two-game losing streak, which highlights their current instability and inability to secure wins, further enhancing the Rockets' opportunity to win decisively at home.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: The Houston Rockets have a record of only 34-21 and are coming off a loss, which may affect their confidence and performance level as they attempt to cover a large spread.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz, despite their record, have shown the ability to keep games competitive, indicating they could challenge the Rockets effectively and prevent an extended blowout.
→NARRATIVE: The game script suggests the Rockets might not push to dominate given their recent inconsistent play, which could lead to a closer score than a significant margin of victory.
→TREND: The Rockets are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, indicating a struggle to consistently cover large spreads, particularly after a loss.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets' large spread of -13.5 is outside the critical 3-7 range, which traditionally indicates higher risk of a push or failure to cover, especially against teams like the Jazz that can unpredictably compete.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2