Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 38.5 points rebounds assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+490↑88%|-3510
player points rebounds assists alternate
Amen Thompson Over 38.5 points rebounds assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+490↑88%|-3510
player points rebounds assists alternate
49.20
Composite Score
+12.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
63.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The bet on Amen Thompson to go Over 38.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists makes sense given the expected high-paced nature of the matchup against the Jazz, who are struggling defensively. Although Thompson's recent trend shows he's consistently below the threshold, the Rockets' need for offensive production in a favorable matchup increases his opportunities to exceed his averages. The Net EV of 0.13 is reliable as it indicates underpricing by the bookmaker considering the favorable conditions and Thompson's upward trend.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is currently averaging 16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over the last 5 games, which totals 29.4 P/R/A and is trending upwards, suggesting a high likelihood of hitting over 49.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have been struggling defensively, allowing an average of 115+ points in their last few games, increasing the potential for Thompson to accumulate higher P/R/A totals.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, the game setting indicates potential for Thompson to play significant minutes in a competitive environment, leading to more opportunities for stats accumulation.
- →TREND: In his last game against the Rockets, Thompson recorded 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 16 points, totaling 28 P/R/A, which indicates an ability to perform well against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are in playoff contention, and given their recent loss, they will likely increase the intensity of their play, potentially allowing Thompson to exceed his average minutes and consequently boosting his P/R/A totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over the last 5 games, totaling 29.4 PRA, well below the 49.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potential blowout which could lead to Thompson being pulled early, limiting his playing time and statistics.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high spread and anticipated dominance from the Rockets, the game script is likely to lead to reduced opportunities for Thompson to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has not exceeded a combined total of 30 PRA in any game, indicating a consistent trend of underperformance relative to this threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are competing for playoff positioning, and in games where they are heavily favored, starters tend to see reduced minutes in favor of bench players during garbage time, hurting Thompson's chance to reach the required metrics.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: Source1, Source2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is currently averaging 16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over the last 5 games, which totals 29.4 P/R/A and is trending upwards, suggesting a high likelihood of hitting over 49.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have been struggling defensively, allowing an average of 115+ points in their last few games, increasing the potential for Thompson to accumulate higher P/R/A totals.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, the game setting indicates potential for Thompson to play significant minutes in a competitive environment, leading to more opportunities for stats accumulation.
- →TREND: In his last game against the Rockets, Thompson recorded 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 16 points, totaling 28 P/R/A, which indicates an ability to perform well against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are in playoff contention, and given their recent loss, they will likely increase the intensity of their play, potentially allowing Thompson to exceed his average minutes and consequently boosting his P/R/A totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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