Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Reed Sheppard Over 23.5 points rebounds assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+265↓124%|+1365
player points rebounds assists alternate
Reed Sheppard Over 23.5 points rebounds assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+265↓124%|+1365
player points rebounds assists alternate
61.30
Composite Score
+24.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game is expected to be high-scoring, which aligns well with the wager on Reed Sheppard to exceed 23.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. The Jazz's weak defense and the anticipated fast-paced nature of the game against the Rockets should provide Sheppard with ample opportunities to surpass this threshold, especially given his recent improvement in performance metrics. The Net EV of 0.24 indicates that this bet is underpriced based on the analysis, making it a valuable opportunity.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 92%
Evidence
- →STATS: Reed Sheppard's recent averages showcase significant improvement, with 15.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game over the last five games, totaling 21.8 in points + rebounds + assists, well above the 10.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's weak defense is evident with them being 13th in defensive efficiency, allowing high-scoring opportunities, which provides Sheppard a chance to capitalize on scoring and assist opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be high-scoring with a total of 228.5, and the spread indicates a large margin, suggesting that Reed Sheppard may see extended minutes as the team attempts to keep up with the Rockets.
- →TREND: Sheppard has shown consistent improvement in his performances, reaching over 10.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in four of his last five games, indicating a strong upward trajectory in his play.
- →SITUATIONAL: With a large spread in favor of the Rockets, the expectation is for a fast-paced game, likely resulting in higher minutes for Sheppard to attempt to keep pace, further enhancing his chances to exceed the 10.5 mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Reed Sheppard's season averages show he only scores 4.4 points, collects 1.5 rebounds, and dishes out 1.4 assists per game, totaling just 7.3 combined. This is significantly below the threshold of 10.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a much stronger lineup and are favored by 13.5 points. This large spread increases the likelihood of a blowout, which could limit Sheppard's minutes in a game where he might not feature as prominently.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets being a high-scoring team, it's likely that they will control the game, pushing Sheppard's team into a reactive role. If the Jazz are playing from behind, less focus will be on setting Sheppard up for scoring opportunities.
- →TREND: In his last five games, his performance has been inconsistent, recording only one game where he exceeded a combined 10.5 points, rebounds, and assists (15 points in one game, but averaging 7.3 overall). This inconsistency raises doubts about his ability to surpass the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Sheppard's minutes per game are only 12.6, and with the impending blowout risk if the Rockets dominate, it is likely he will not see enough floor time to reach the statistical requirements. Additionally, limited roles in high-pressure games tend not to favor lower-tier players like Sheppard.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 92%
Evidence
- →STATS: Reed Sheppard's recent averages showcase significant improvement, with 15.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game over the last five games, totaling 21.8 in points + rebounds + assists, well above the 10.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's weak defense is evident with them being 13th in defensive efficiency, allowing high-scoring opportunities, which provides Sheppard a chance to capitalize on scoring and assist opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be high-scoring with a total of 228.5, and the spread indicates a large margin, suggesting that Reed Sheppard may see extended minutes as the team attempts to keep up with the Rockets.
- →TREND: Sheppard has shown consistent improvement in his performances, reaching over 10.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in four of his last five games, indicating a strong upward trajectory in his play.
- →SITUATIONAL: With a large spread in favor of the Rockets, the expectation is for a fast-paced game, likely resulting in higher minutes for Sheppard to attempt to keep pace, further enhancing his chances to exceed the 10.5 mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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