Back to Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee Volunteers -4.5

🎯 Core Value Bet

-115— stable

spreads

Tennessee Volunteers -4.5

🎯 Core Value Bet

-115— stable

spreads

42.10

Composite Score

-8.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

27.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the Net EV of -0.09, this bet does not provide sufficient value based on both agents' evidence. While the Tennessee Volunteers have a strong home record and a robust defense that would usually suggest a favorable outcome against Alabama, their struggles on the road and negative trends after a recent loss raise serious concerns. Additionally, Alabama's strong momentum and ability to perform well against ranked opponents suggest that Tennessee may struggle to win by more than 4.5 points, making this wager a risky endeavor.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Tennessee Volunteers have an impressive home record of 14-1, which suggests strong performance in familiar surroundings, giving them an edge over a ranked opponent like Alabama.
→MATCHUP: The Tennessee Volunteers' strong defense can disrupt Alabama's offensive rhythm, giving them a significant advantage in securing a victory by more than 4.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 164.5, the game is expected to be competitive, but Tennessee's ability to control the pace may allow them to pull away late in the game, resulting in a victory exceeding the point spread.
→TREND: Despite a recent loss, Tennessee has consistently demonstrated competitive resilience, indicating they can bounce back at home against another strong SEC opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Volunteers benefit from playing on their home court with the support of local fans, which has proven effective in their only loss at home this season, enhancing their chances of winning by a significant margin.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Tennessee has a record of 4-5 in away games, indicating they struggle to maintain winning margins on the road, which is crucial when facing a strong team like Alabama.
→MATCHUP: Alabama has a strong home record of 11-3 and is ranked #17, reflecting their ability to perform well against ranked opponents, making it difficult for Tennessee to win by more than 4.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: The current trend shows Tennessee coming off a loss, which could impact their confidence and performance negatively, especially against a higher-ranked and dynamically potent opponent like Alabama.
→TREND: Tennessee has lost their last game, suggesting a potential downward momentum that could limit their effectiveness and scoring capacity against a formidable Crimson Tide team.
→SITUATIONAL: Alabama is currently on a five-game winning streak, indicating strong momentum and cohesiveness, which tends to make it more challenging for visiting teams to secure substantial victories against them.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Tennessee Volunteers have an impressive home record of 14-1, which suggests strong performance in familiar surroundings, giving them an edge over a ranked opponent like Alabama.
→MATCHUP: The Tennessee Volunteers' strong defense can disrupt Alabama's offensive rhythm, giving them a significant advantage in securing a victory by more than 4.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 164.5, the game is expected to be competitive, but Tennessee's ability to control the pace may allow them to pull away late in the game, resulting in a victory exceeding the point spread.
→TREND: Despite a recent loss, Tennessee has consistently demonstrated competitive resilience, indicating they can bounce back at home against another strong SEC opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Volunteers benefit from playing on their home court with the support of local fans, which has proven effective in their only loss at home this season, enhancing their chances of winning by a significant margin.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2