SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Alabama Crimson TideAlabama Crimson Tide21-7
@
Tennessee VolunteersTennessee Volunteers20-8
19h 2m
Sat, Feb 28 • 11:00 PM|✓2/27 7:05 PM|12 wagers0
Game Lines
SPR
ML
O/U
Tide
--
💤+170+170—
--
Volunteers
--
🧠-210-210—
--

Key Themes

Read full game script

SAL's Picks

🔒 SAL's Lock🎯 T1

Total Under 164.5

This bet on the Under 164.5 total points makes sense given that both Alabama and Tennessee have demonstrated strong defensive capabilities, allowing an average of only 68 and 65 points...

-105+7.7% EVScore: 45%

📊Analysis Quality(6 actionable / 12 total)

🎯 4
Core Value Bet
Count: 4 (33%)
Avg EV: -0.7%
Range: -8.9% - 7.7%
🧠 2
Conviction Bet
Count: 2 (17%)
Avg EV: -16.0%
Range: -17.5% - -14.5%
💤 6
Noise Bet
Count: 6 (50%)
Avg EV: -5.7%
Range: -17.2% - 2.1%
🎯Core
4 (33%)
🧠Conviction
2 (17%)
🚀Asymmetric
0 (0%)
💤Noise
6 (50%)

Tier Distribution by Prop Type

No player props available
Prop tier breakdown will appear once props are analyzed
🦎

SAL's Game Script

Full betting analysis and game context

Labaron Philon's injury is the earthquake reshaping this game. Alabama loses their best facilitator (15.0 PPG, 4.3 APG) on a road trip to an elite home team, forcing secondary creators like Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (10.8 PPG, 37.8% 3P) and Aden Holloway (2.8 APG) into roles they've never shouldered consistently. This matters because Alabama's offensive identity—built on Philon orchestrating rhythm for shooters like Amari Allen (39.8% 3P) and Houston Mallette (37.3% 3P)—collapses into isolation-heavy, predictable sets against Tennessee's interior-first defensive scheme. Tennessee's 14-1 home record versus Alabama's 6-2 road mark creates a structural mismatch that the -5.5 spread may undervalue. The Volunteers are 19 games better at home than away (adjusted), suggesting Thompson-Boling Arena isn't just noise—it's foundational to their defensive identity. When Nate Ament (17.9 PPG, 6'10" frame) operates in a slower, half-court environment where Alabama can't generate spacing without Philon's penetration, Tennessee's interior advantage (Felix Okpara 58.7% FG, 5.6 RPG) becomes amplified. Alabama's perimeter-heavy rotation, which thrived during their 5-game win streak with Philon facilitating, becomes stagnant without ball movement. Candidates diverge on whether Alabama's recent success proves adaptation (Candidate 1) or masks underlying fragility without Philon (Candidates 2 & 3). Alabama's path to covering requires near-perfect execution: Wrightsell...

Analysis generated 2/27/2026, 7:05:00 PM

📊SAL's Edge Analysis

EV39%Story50%Pro40%Bal63%Score45%
Edge over market odds
Fits game narrative
Bullish agent confidence
Pro vs Anti consensus
Overall quality metric
Core ValueGame Line

Total Under 164.5

+4.0%edge
vs All WagersTop 17%
vs Core ValueTop 25%
Elite edge among all analyzed wagers
Odds
-105
Implied
51%
SAL Est.
55%
EV
7.7%
1 of 6 wagers

Top Individual Bets(6 of 12)

Book:
Bet
Total Under 164.5 Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers
+7.7%-105
🎯FanDuel • totals
🎯
Total Under 164.5 Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers
FanDuel • totals
+7.7%
45.20
-105
Total Under 162.5 Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers
+3.0%-110
🎯DraftKings • totals
🎯
Total Under 162.5 Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers
DraftKings • totals
+3.0%
38.40
-110
Tennessee Volunteers -5.5
-4.7%-102
🎯FanDuel • spreads
🎯
Tennessee Volunteers -5.5
FanDuel • spreads
-4.7%
39.00
-102
Tennessee Volunteers -4.5
-8.9%-115
🎯DraftKings • spreads
🎯
Tennessee Volunteers -4.5
DraftKings • spreads
-8.9%
42.10
-115
Tennessee Volunteers ML
-14.5%-210
🧠BetMGM • h2h
🧠
Tennessee Volunteers ML
BetMGM • h2h
-14.5%
44.90
-210
Tennessee Volunteers ML
-17.5%-245
🧠FanDuel • h2h
🧠
Tennessee Volunteers ML
FanDuel • h2h
-17.5%
48.50
-245
SAL 9000

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